Mitigating global climate change requires decarbonizing the electricity sector, but the optimal strategy for doing so is not obvious. As power plants fueled by coal and petroleum are phased out, other generation technologies must fill the gap. While technically feasible, many low-carbon technologies are currently expensive - though costs may fall with experience. As an alternative, natural gas-fired power plants provide lower-carbon electricity - and cheaply if gas is abundant. The least-cost portfolio of generation technologies depends on several uncertain parameters. This paper presents a stylized model of the global electricity sector and evaluates several decarbonization strategies focused on three bridge technologies - natural gas, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and nuclear - over the period 2015-2050. With constraints on total demand for electricity and penetration of renewables, I find that the results are sensitive to the learning curve for CCS, the cost of natural gas, and the social cost of carbon. Depending on the true state of the world, decision-makers may find either natural gas power plants or CCS to be least-cost options for decarbonization portfolios. The expected value of information from resolving uncertainty is hundreds of billions of dollars, indicating high social benefits from investments into scientific research.
Yale Univ, Yale Ctr Environm Law & Policy, 195 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA
Recommended Citation:
Wendling, Zachary A.. Bridges beyond renewable energy: Decarbonizing the global electricity sector under uncertainty[J]. ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE,2019-01-01,48:235-245