globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-37719-9
WOS记录号: WOS:000457616300035
论文题名:
Tracing the climate signal: mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase
作者: Christensen, Torben Rojle1,2; Arora, Vivek K.3; Gauss, Michael4; Hoeglund-Isaksson, Lena5; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.2,6
通讯作者: Christensen, Torben Rojle
刊名: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN: 2045-2322
出版年: 2019
卷: 9
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: PERMAFROST CARBON ; BUDGET
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Natural methane emissions are noticeably influenced by warming of cold arctic ecosystems and permafrost. An evaluation specifically of Arctic natural methane emissions in relation to our ability to mitigate anthropogenic methane emissions is needed. Here we use empirical scenarios of increases in natural emissions together with maximum technically feasible reductions in anthropogenic emissions to evaluate their potential influence on future atmospheric methane concentrations and associated radiative forcing (RF). The largest amplification of natural emissions yields up to 42% higher atmospheric methane concentrations by the year 2100 compared with no change in natural emissions. The most likely scenarios are lower than this, while anthropogenic emission reductions may have a much greater yielding effect, with the potential of halving atmospheric methane concentrations by 2100 compared to when anthropogenic emissions continue to increase as in a business-as-usual case. In a broader perspective, it is shown that man-made emissions can be reduced sufficiently to limit methane-caused climate warming by 2100 even in the case of an uncontrolled natural Arctic methane emission feedback, but this requires a committed, global effort towards maximum feasible reductions.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129670
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Aarhus Univ, Dept Biosci, Arctic Res Ctr, Aarhus, Denmark
2.Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Lund, Sweden
3.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Climate Res Div, Vancouver, BC, Canada
4.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway
5.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Air Qual & Greenhouse Gases Program, Laxenburg, Austria
6.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, Oslo, Norway

Recommended Citation:
Christensen, Torben Rojle,Arora, Vivek K.,Gauss, Michael,et al. Tracing the climate signal: mitigation of anthropogenic methane emissions can outweigh a large Arctic natural emission increase[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2019-01-01,9
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