globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b04375
WOS记录号: WOS:000458220600036
论文题名:
Exploring Future Food Provision Scenarios for China
作者: Ma, Lin1; Bai, Zhaohai1; Ma, Wenqi2; Guo, Mengchu3; Jiang, Rongfeng3; Liu, Junguo4; Oenema, Oene5; Velthof, Gerard L.5; Whitmore, Andrew P.6; Crawford, John6; Dobermann, Achim6; Schwoob, Marie7; Zhang, Fusuo3
通讯作者: Ma, Lin ; Zhang, Fusuo
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
ISSN: 0013-936X
EISSN: 1520-5851
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:3, 页码:1385-1393
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION ; REACTIVE NITROGEN ; NUTRIENT FLOWS ; PHOSPHORUS USE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WATER ; MANAGEMENT ; SOIL ; SYSTEM
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Developing sustainable food systems is essential, especially for emerging economies, where food systems are changing rapidly and affect the environment and natural resources. We explored possible future pathways for a sustainable food system in China, using multiple environmental indicators linked to eight of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Forecasts for 2030 in a business as usual scenario (BAU) indicate increases in animal food consumption as well as increased shortages of the land available and the water needed to produce the required food in China. Associated greenhouse gas emissions and nitrogen and phosphorus losses could become 10-42% of global emissions in 2010. We developed three main pathways besides BAU [produce more and better food (PMB), consume and waste less food (CWL), and import. more food (IMF)]. and analyzed their impacts and contributions to achieving one or more of the eight SDGs. Under these scenarios, the demand for land and water and the emissions of GHG and nutrients may decrease by 7-55% compared to BAU, depending on the pathway followed. A combination of PMB and CWL was most effective, while IMF externalizes impacts to countries exporting to China. Modestly increasing feed or food imports in a selective manner could ease the pressure on natural resources. Our modeling framework allows us to analyze the effects of changes in food production consumption systems in an integrated manner, and the results can be linked to the eight SDGs. Despite formidable technological, social, educational, and structural barriers that need to be overcome, our study indicates that the ambitious targets of China's new agricultural and environmental strategy appear to be achievable.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129683
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Genet & Dev Biol, Ctr Agr Resources Res, Key Lab Agr Water Resources, Shijiazhuang 050021, Hebei, Peoples R China
2.Hebei Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Baoding 071001, Peoples R China
3.China Agr Univ, Ctr Resources Environm & Food Secur, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China
4.South Univ Sci & Technol China, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
5.Environm Res, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
6.Rothamsted Res, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England
7.Inst Sustainable Dev & Int Relat IDDRI, 41 Rue 4, F-75006 Paris, France

Recommended Citation:
Ma, Lin,Bai, Zhaohai,Ma, Wenqi,et al. Exploring Future Food Provision Scenarios for China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY,2019-01-01,53(3):1385-1393
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