globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-735-2019
WOS记录号: WOS:000459175500001
论文题名:
Similarities within a multi-model ensemble: functional data analysis framework
作者: Holtanova, Eva1; Mendlik, Thomas2; Kolacek, Jan3; Horova, Ivanka3; Miksovsky, Jiri1
通讯作者: Holtanova, Eva
刊名: GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
ISSN: 1991-959X
EISSN: 1991-9603
出版年: 2019
卷: 12, 期:2, 页码:735-747
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; EUROPE ; UNCERTAINTIES ; INDEPENDENCE ; SIMULATIONS ; OUTPUTS ; SPREAD ; IMPACT ; CMIP5
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Geology
英文摘要:

Despite the abundance of available global climate model (GCM) and regional climate model (RCM) outputs, their use for evaluation of past and future climate change is often complicated by substantial differences between individual simulations and the resulting uncertainties. In this study, we present a methodological framework for the analysis of multi-model ensembles based on a functional data analysis approach. A set of two metrics that generalize the concept of similarity based on the behavior of entire simulated climatic time series, encompassing both past and future periods, is introduced. To our knowledge, our method is the first to quantitatively assess similarities between model simulations based on the temporal evolution of simulated values. To evaluate mutual distances of the time series, we used two semimetrics based on Euclidean distances between the simulated trajectories and based on differences in their first derivatives. Further, we introduce an innovative way of visualizing climate model similarities based on a network spatialization algorithm. Using the layout graphs, the data are ordered on a two-dimensional plane which enables an unambiguous interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated using two illustrative cases of air temperature over the British Isles (BI) and precipitation in central Europe, simulated by an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs and their driving GCMs over the 1971-2098 period. In addition to the sample results, interpretational aspects of the applied methodology and its possible extensions are also discussed.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/130064
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Charles Univ Prague, Fac Math & Phys, Dept Atmospher Phys, V Holesovickach 2, CR-18000 Prague, Czech Republic
2.Karl Franzens Univ Graz, Wegener Ctr Climate & Global Change, Brandhofgasse 5-1, A-8010 Graz, Austria
3.Masaryk Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Math & Stat, Kotlarska 267-2, CS-61137 Brno, Czech Republic

Recommended Citation:
Holtanova, Eva,Mendlik, Thomas,Kolacek, Jan,et al. Similarities within a multi-model ensemble: functional data analysis framework[J]. GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT,2019-01-01,12(2):735-747
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