globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08633-z
WOS记录号: WOS:000459284600002
论文题名:
Earth system models underestimate carbon fixation by plants in the high latitudes
作者: Winkler, Alexander J.1,2; Myneni, Ranga B.1,3; Alexandrov, Georgii A.4; Brovkin, Victor1
通讯作者: Winkler, Alexander J.
刊名: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN: 2041-1723
出版年: 2019
卷: 10
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: VEGETATION LEAF-AREA ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; CO2 ; CLIMATE ; CYCLE ; CMIP5 ; PROJECTIONS ; ECOSYSTEMS ; SATELLITE ; EXCHANGE
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Most Earth system models agree that land will continue to store carbon due to the physiological effects of rising CO2 concentration and climatic changes favoring plant growth in temperature-limited regions. But they largely disagree on the amount of carbon uptake. The historical CO2 increase has resulted in enhanced photosynthetic carbon fixation (Gross Primary Production, GPP), as can be evidenced from atmospheric CO2 concentration and satellite leaf area index measurements. Here, we use leaf area sensitivity to ambient CO2 from the past 36 years of satellite measurements to obtain an Emergent Constraint (EC) estimate of GPP enhancement in the northern high latitudes at two-times the pre-industrial CO2 concentration (3.4 +/- 0.2 Pg C yr(-1)). We derive three independent comparable estimates from CO2 measurements and atmospheric inversions. Our EC estimate is 60% larger than the conventionally used multi-model average (44% higher at the global scale). This suggests that most models largely underestimate photosynthetic carbon fixation and therefore likely overestimate future atmospheric CO2 abundance and ensuing climate change, though not proportionately.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/130128
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
2.Int Max Planck Res Sch Earth Syst Modeling, Bundesstr 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
3.Boston Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA
4.AM Obukhov Inst Atmospher Phys, Pyzhyovskiy Pereulok 3, Moscow 119017, Russia

Recommended Citation:
Winkler, Alexander J.,Myneni, Ranga B.,Alexandrov, Georgii A.,et al. Earth system models underestimate carbon fixation by plants in the high latitudes[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019-01-01,10
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