globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.10.019
WOS记录号: WOS:000452931100015
论文题名:
Future projections of extreme temperature events in different sub-regions of China
作者: Li, Linchao1,2; Yao, Ning1,2; Li, Yi1,2,3; Liu, De Li4,5,6; Wang, Bin4; Ayantobo, Olusola O.1,2
通讯作者: Li, Yi
刊名: ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN: 0169-8095
EISSN: 1873-2895
出版年: 2019
卷: 217, 页码:150-164
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extreme temperature index ; Statistical downscaling ; GCM ; Mann-Kendall test ; Wavelet analysis ; Representative concentration pathways
WOS关键词: MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE PROJECTIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; NEW-SOUTH-WALES ; MODEL PERFORMANCE ; WAVELET ANALYSIS ; HEAT-STRESS ; PRECIPITATION ; CMIP5 ; TRENDS ; VARIABILITY
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme temperature events is critical to evaluate their influences in nature. Out of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5, eight GCMs were selected to simulate changes of the six extreme temperature indices (ETIs) in China: warmest daily maximum temperature-TXx, warm days-TX90p, tropical days-TD30, coldest daily minimum temperature-TNn, cool nights-TN10p and frost days-FD0. Statistically downscaled daily maximum and minimum temperatures at 552 sites under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used. The modified Mann-Kendall method was used to detect the trends and their significances in ETIs. The Morlet wavelet basic function was used to investigate the main and quasi periods of the ETIs over the historical (1961-2000) and future (2001-2100) time stages. The results showed that FD0 and TN10p had decreasing trends, and TNn had increasing trends at more sites than decreasing trends. However, TD30, TX90p and TXx showed consistently increasing trends both during historical and future periods under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. More sites had significant trends in the 6 ETIs during 2001-2100. The decreases in FD0 and TN10p reached 31.4 and 27.4 days during 2021-2060 and 42.6 and 29.7 days during 2061-2100, respectively. The increases in TNn, TD30, 1790p, and TXx reached 8.7 degrees C, 45.3 days, 41.6 days and 5.7 degrees C over 2021-2060 and 7.2 degrees C, 65.6 days, 62.4 days and 6.4 degrees C over 2061-2100, respectively. With respect to the averaged values for 552 sites, the primary periods of FD0, TN10p, TNn, TD30, TX90p and TXx were 8, 8, 8, 3, 3 and 10 years from 1961 to 2017 and 4, 4, 4, 2, 2 and 3 years under the RCP4.5 scenario from 2021 to 2100, respectively, whereas only TN10p and TNn had the 2- and 4-year periods under the RCP8.5 scenario. Differently from the averaged ETIs over China, more sites had longer periods from 1961 to 2017 to 2021-2100 under the RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 scenarios. This outcome meant that many sites had smaller fluctuations and less periodicity from 2021 to 2100 than from 1961 to 2017. The spatiotemporal changes in the Ells may lead to the shifting of cultivation, variety adaptability and production for main crops in different sub-regions or climate zones. This research provides projected characteristics of extreme temperature events across China.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/130404
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Northwest Agr & Forestry Univ, Coll Water Resources & Architecture Engn, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
2.Northwest Agr & Forestry Univ, Inst Water Saving Agr Arid Areas China, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
3.Northwest Agr & Forestry Univ, Educ Minist, Key Lab Agr Water & Soil Engn, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
4.Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia
5.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
6.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Li, Linchao,Yao, Ning,Li, Yi,et al. Future projections of extreme temperature events in different sub-regions of China[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2019-01-01,217:150-164
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