globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s10614-017-9789-y
WOS记录号: WOS:000460619800014
论文题名:
Systematic Sensitivity Analysis of the Full Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise
作者: Chatzivasileiadis, T.1; Estrada, F.1,2; Hofkes, M. W.1,3,4; Tol, R. S. J.1,4,5,6,7
通讯作者: Chatzivasileiadis, T.
刊名: COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS
ISSN: 0927-7099
EISSN: 1572-9974
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:3, 页码:1183-1217
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CGE ; Sea level rise ; Systematic sensitivity analysis ; Monte Carlo ; GTAP
WOS关键词: GAUSSIAN QUADRATURES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE
WOS学科分类: Economics ; Management ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS研究方向: Business & Economics ; Mathematics
英文摘要:

The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change have been widely studied in the literature. However, the uncertainty and robustness of these estimates has seldom been explored. Here we assess the model input uncertainty regarding the wide effects of SLR on marine navigation from a global economic perspective. We systematically assess the robustness of computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to model's inputs uncertainty. Monte Carlo (MC) and Gaussian quadrature (GQ) methods are used for conducting a Systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA). This design allows to both explore the sensitivity of the CGE model and to compare the MC and GQ methods. Results show that, regardless whether triangular or piecewise linear Probability distributions are used, the welfare losses are higher in the MC SSA than in the original deterministic simulation. This indicates that the CGE economic literature has potentially underestimated the total economic effects of SLR, thus stressing the necessity of SSA when simulating the general equilibrium effects of SLR. The uncertainty decomposition shows that land losses have a smaller effect compared to capital and seaport productivity losses. Capital losses seem to affect the developed regions GDP more than the productivity losses do. Moreover, we show the uncertainty decomposition of the MC results and discuss the convergence of the MC results for a decomposed version of the CGE model. This paper aims to provide standardised guidelines for stochastic simulation in the context of CGE modelling that could be useful for researchers in similar settings.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/130448
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
2.Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Circuito Exterior S-N,Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
3.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Econ, De Boelelaan 1105, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
4.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Spatial Econ, De Boelelaan 1105, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
5.Univ Sussex, Dept Econ, Jubilee Bldg, Falmer Brighton BN1 9SL, England
6.Tinbergen Inst, Gustav Mahlerpl 117, NL-1082 MS Amsterdam, Netherlands
7.CESifo, Munich, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Chatzivasileiadis, T.,Estrada, F.,Hofkes, M. W.,et al. Systematic Sensitivity Analysis of the Full Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise[J]. COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS,2019-01-01,53(3):1183-1217
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