globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1328-4
WOS记录号: WOS:000461300900008
论文题名:
Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models
作者: Holman, Ian P.1; Brown, Calum2; Carter, Timothy R.3; Harrison, Paula A.4; Rounsevell, Mark2
通讯作者: Holman, Ian P.
刊名: REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN: 1436-3798
EISSN: 1436-378X
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期:3, 页码:711-721
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptive capacity ; Limits ; Water ; Land ; Decision making ; Integrated assessment
WOS关键词: LAND-COVER CHANGE ; GLOBAL CHANGE ; RIVER-BASIN ; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT ; ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ; VULNERABILITY ; VARIABILITY ; PRECAUTIONARY ; AGRICULTURE ; MANAGEMENT
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/130485
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Cranfield Univ, Cranfield Water Sci Inst, Vincent Bldg, Bedford MK43 0AL, England
2.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany
3.Finnish Environm Inst SYKE, FI-00251 Helsinki, Finland
4.Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England

Recommended Citation:
Holman, Ian P.,Brown, Calum,Carter, Timothy R.,et al. Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2019-01-01,19(3):711-721
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