globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.24200/sci.2017.4593
WOS记录号: WOS:000464968500011
论文题名:
Development of a new integrated method for generation of IDF curves based on three scenarios of climatic changes
作者: Adib, A.; Rad, S. Ghafari
通讯作者: Adib, A.
刊名: SCIENTIA IRANICA
ISSN: 1026-3098
出版年: 2019
卷: 26, 期:2, 页码:742-751
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climatic change ; The HadCM3 ; IDF curves ; RBF ANN ; The Baghmalek climatic station ; The Gumbel distribution
WOS关键词: DURATION-FREQUENCY CURVES ; CENTER COUPLED MODEL ; RAINFALL ; PRECIPITATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; QUANTIFICATION ; SIMULATION ; VERSION ; IMPACT ; SDSM
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Engineering
英文摘要:

Climate change can change the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. This research study evaluates IDF curves changes of the Baghmalek climatic station in the southwest of Iran. A developed integrated method extracted the IDF curves using the G umbel and log-Pearson III probability distributions and observed maximum annual precipitations. Durations of these precipitations are 15, 30, 45 minutes and 1,2,3,6 and 12 hours. For this purpose, this method utilizes the recorded precipitation data of the Baghmalek climatic station in a 40-year period (1974-2013). Then, mean square error method determines the probability distribution that has the best fitting with this data. The HadCM3 prepares precipitation data for a 30-year period (2021-2050) based on A1B, B1, and A2 scenarios. In addition, this method selects an optimum artificial neural network to extract maximum annual rainfall intensity for different durations and scenarios. Then, selected network and the chosen probability distribution produce IDF curves for different return periods and scenarios. Produced IDF curves for different scenarios are compared to IDF curves of a base time period. Because of increasing carbon dioxide and its greenhouse effects in these scenarios, rainfall intensity will increase for return periods less than 2.33 years, while it will decrease for return periods more than 2.33 years. (C) 2019 Sharif University of Technology. All rights reserved.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/130880
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Shahid Chamran Univ Ahvaz, Fac Engn, Dept Civil Engn, Ahwaz, Iran

Recommended Citation:
Adib, A.,Rad, S. Ghafari. Development of a new integrated method for generation of IDF curves based on three scenarios of climatic changes[J]. SCIENTIA IRANICA,2019-01-01,26(2):742-751
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