globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.2166/aqua.2019.106
WOS记录号: WOS:000462037000005
论文题名:
Integrated hydrological modeling for assessment of water demand and supply under socio-economic and IPCC climate change scenarios using WEAP in Central Indus Basin
作者: Asghar, Areesha1; Iqbal, Javed1; Amin, Ali1; Ribbe, Lars2
通讯作者: Asghar, Areesha
刊名: JOURNAL OF WATER SUPPLY RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY-AQUA
ISSN: 0003-7214
EISSN: 1365-2087
出版年: 2019
卷: 68, 期:2, 页码:136-148
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Central Indus Basin ; climate change ; socio-economic scenarios ; water resources management ; water scarcity
WOS关键词: MANAGEMENT ; GROUNDWATER
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

In the Indus River Basin, various hydrological modeling studies have been conducted in the context of climate change scenarios. However, none of these studies addressed the impact of socio-economic along with the climate change scenarios on sustainable water demand and supply. This study focused on socio-economic and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2015-2050 in the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model were used for future projection of water availability and demand. The WEAP model calibration and validation statistics of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination values were 0.85, 0.86 and 0.89, 0.87, respectively. As per the reference scenarios results by 2050, water demand would increase 11% for domestic and 55% for agriculture and livestock sectors. The high population growth scenario reveals that by 2050, with an increase in the water consumption from 82.9 m(3) per capita per day by the year 2015 to 120 m(3) per capita per day, unmet water demands in all sectors will increase to 50%. The IPCC climate change scenario projected the average change in precipitation and temperature would be about 15.22% and 274.07 K to 274.92 K by the end of 2035.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131026
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Natl Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
2.Technol Arts Sci TH Koln, Integrated Land & Water Resources Management Trop, D-50679 Cologne, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Asghar, Areesha,Iqbal, Javed,Amin, Ali,et al. Integrated hydrological modeling for assessment of water demand and supply under socio-economic and IPCC climate change scenarios using WEAP in Central Indus Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF WATER SUPPLY RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY-AQUA,2019-01-01,68(2):136-148
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