globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1424-5
WOS记录号: WOS:000461300900010
论文题名:
Modelling dynamic effects of multi-scale institutions on land use change
作者: Holzhauer, Sascha1,2; Brown, Calum1,3; Rounsevell, Mark1,3
通讯作者: Rounsevell, Mark
刊名: REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN: 1436-3798
EISSN: 1436-378X
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期:3, 页码:733-746
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Land use change ; Governance ; Formal institutions ; Decision-making ; Complex socio-ecological systems ; Agent-based modelling
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DECISION-MAKING ; COVER CHANGE ; ADAPTATION ; GOVERNANCE ; BIODIVERSITY ; SIMULATION ; SYSTEMS ; POLICY ; CONSERVATION
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Formal institutions impact on the dynamics of land use change through their objectives, actions and decision-making processes in response to socio-economic or environmental changes such as climate change. The effects and interplay of these actions are not fully understood, and hence, institutional processes are rarely integrated in modelling analyses of land use change. The complex effects of institutional interactions within land systems can be better understood through modelling approaches that address the heterogeneity of the institutional actors involved and how their decisions affect temporal and spatial dynamics. In this paper, we present an agent-based model of autonomous land managers interacting with institutional agents at two spatial scales. We explore different parameters of institutional intervention (subsidy rate, triggers for action, delay in monitoring, scale-based precedence) under socio-economic drivers and analyse key metrics such as the maximum over- and undersupply of ecosystem services, connectivity of land uses, and degree of change in land use patterns. Levels of subsidy and action triggers have the greatest impact on the magnitude of land use change and the maximum oversupply of ecosystem services. In terms of achieving institutional objectives, subsidy rate is the most important single parameter in the model. Furthermore, we find non-linearity with variations in parameters that have important implications for current land use change modelling and requirements for empirical studies of land use planning institutions. Finally, the effects of high-end climate change may require entirely novel institutional behaviours.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131027
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian, Scotland
2.Univ Kassel, Integrated Energy Syst Grp, Dept Elect Engn & Comp Sci, Wilhelmshoher Allee 73, D-34121 Kassel, Germany
3.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Atmospher Environm Res IMK IFU, Kreuzeckbahnstr 19, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Holzhauer, Sascha,Brown, Calum,Rounsevell, Mark. Modelling dynamic effects of multi-scale institutions on land use change[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2019-01-01,19(3):733-746
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