globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/env.2522
WOS记录号: WOS:000461592800005
论文题名:
Spatiotemporal modeling of hydrological return levels: A quantile regression approach
作者: Franco-Villoria, Maria1; Scott, Marian2; Hoey, Trevor3
通讯作者: Franco-Villoria, Maria
刊名: ENVIRONMETRICS
ISSN: 1180-4009
EISSN: 1099-095X
出版年: 2019
卷: 30, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme values ; hydrometric time series ; P-splines ; PIRLS
WOS关键词: RIVER FLOW REGIMES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; UNCERTAINTY ; IMPACTS ; SPLINES
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Statistics & Probability
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics
英文摘要:

Extreme river flows can lead to inundation of floodplains, with consequent impacts for society, the environment, and the economy. Extreme flows are inherently difficult to model, being infrequent, irregularly spaced, and affected by nonstationary climatic controls. To identify patterns in extreme flows, a quantile regression approach can be used. This paper introduces a new framework for spatiotemporal quantile regression modeling, where the regression model is built as an additive model that includes smooth functions of time and space, as well as space-time interaction effects. The model exploits the flexibility that P-splines offer and can be easily extended to incorporate potential covariates. We propose to estimate model parameters using a penalized least squares regression approach as an alternative to linear programming methods, classically used in quantile parameter estimation. The model is illustrated on a data set of flows in 98 rivers across Scotland.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131071
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Turin, Dept Econ & Stat Cognetti de Martiis, Turin, Italy
2.Univ Glasgow, Sch Math & Stat, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland
3.Univ Glasgow, Sch Geog & Earth Sci, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland

Recommended Citation:
Franco-Villoria, Maria,Scott, Marian,Hoey, Trevor. Spatiotemporal modeling of hydrological return levels: A quantile regression approach[J]. ENVIRONMETRICS,2019-01-01,30(2)
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