globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.asoc.2018.12.015
WOS记录号: WOS:000461145200011
论文题名:
A semi-quantitative modelling application for assessing energy efficiency strategies
作者: Nikas, Alexandros; Ntanos, Emmanouil; Doukas, Haris
通讯作者: Nikas, Alexandros
刊名: APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING
ISSN: 1568-4946
EISSN: 1872-9681
出版年: 2019
卷: 76, 页码:140-155
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decision support ; Policy ; Energy efficiency ; Fuzzy cognitive maps ; Greece
WOS关键词: FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPS ; MANAGEMENT-SYSTEM ; POLICY ; SCENARIOS ; KNOWLEDGE ; ECOSYSTEM ; DESIGN
WOS学科分类: Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS研究方向: Computer Science
英文摘要:

Given the international efforts in tackling climate change as well as the potential dependence on conventional energy imports and the adverse economic environment, countries in the European Union face significant challenges in the critical task of enhancing energy efficiency. Approaches exclusively oriented on detailed quantitative modelling tools like energy system and climate-economy models, however, tend to exclude certain policy instruments and risks, and be too formalised or complex for policymakers to participate, understand and trust. Several decision support frameworks have been proposed for bridging the policy-model gap and helping policymakers confidently select among a number of alternative strategies. This paper employs the expert-driven method of fuzzy cognitive mapping, a semi-quantitative modelling technique in which system dynamics are captured and simulated against different scenarios. To this end, an innovative decision support tool for building and simulating complex fuzzy cognitive maps for assessing policy strategies with the help of experts, ESQAPE, is introduced and presented. An application in Greece shows that long-term energy efficiency measures focusing mainly on behavioural change in the residential sector - as opposed to services in the private and public sectors are perceived to be more sustainable in a socio-economically optimistic future; this is not the case when challenges across the mitigation and adaptation axes are expected to be higher. (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131101
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Natl Tech Univ Athens, Sch Elect & Comp Engn, Decis Support Syst Lab, Iroon Politech 9, Athens 15780, Greece

Recommended Citation:
Nikas, Alexandros,Ntanos, Emmanouil,Doukas, Haris. A semi-quantitative modelling application for assessing energy efficiency strategies[J]. APPLIED SOFT COMPUTING,2019-01-01,76:140-155
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