globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.061
WOS记录号: WOS:000460709400011
论文题名:
Incorporating climate model similarities and hydrologic error models to quantify climate change impacts on future riverine flood risk
作者: Ahn, Kuk-Hyun1; Kim, Yong-Oh2
通讯作者: Ahn, Kuk-Hyun
刊名: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN: 0022-1694
EISSN: 1879-2707
出版年: 2019
卷: 570, 页码:118-131
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Quantifying uncertainty ; Climate change ; Hydrologic response
WOS关键词: UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS ; WATER-RESOURCES ; FREQUENCY ; PARAMETER ; ENSEMBLE ; HETEROSCEDASTICITY ; AUTOCORRELATION ; PROJECTIONS ; GENERATION ; PREDICTION
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Quantifying uncertainty in projecting climate change impact on flood frequency analysis is particularly relevant for long-term water resources planning and management. This study examines uncertainties arising from (1) a climate model, with and without accounting of intermodel similarities, (2) a hydrological model with two different error model definitions, which have previously received less attention in studies propagating uncertainty through climate change impacts on flood response. Through a Bayesian modeling framework, a proposed statistical framework is utilized to explore various definitions of sources of uncertainty and to develop a series of nested formulations that can evaluate the leverage of specific uncertainty sources in quantiles of future streamflow. To be specific, climate model similarity, hydrologic prediction error, and frequency analysis are formally modeled with an appropriate likelihood function. The quantiles inferred by each formulation are compared in a case study of the Yongdam Basin in Korea. Results indicate that variance in hydrologic response is underestimated if climate model similarities are ignored, and in many cases, the inferred quantiles of streamflow projection are biased accordingly. Furthermore, a simple error model used in defining hydrologic uncertainty may create incorrect information in determining the quantiles in streamflow projection. The approach presented here of quantifying uncertainty has the potential to better depict overall multi-source uncertainties in projections of climate change impacts on hydrologic response. Finally, our results also indicate that careful flood planning management may be required for the Yongdam Basin in future summers.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131183
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Kongju Natl Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Cheonan, South Korea
2.Seoul Natl Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seoul, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Ahn, Kuk-Hyun,Kim, Yong-Oh. Incorporating climate model similarities and hydrologic error models to quantify climate change impacts on future riverine flood risk[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019-01-01,570:118-131
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