globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001042
WOS记录号: WOS:000457266900003
论文题名:
Nonstationary Stochastic Simulation-Based Water Allocation Method for Regional Water Management
作者: Chen, Shu1; Shao, Dongguo2; Tan, Xuezhi3; Gu, Wenquan2; Lei, Caixiu4
通讯作者: Shao, Dongguo
刊名: JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0733-9496
EISSN: 1943-5452
出版年: 2019
卷: 145, 期:3
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Model optimization ; Nonstationary analysis ; Regional water management ; Stochastic simulation ; Statistical analysis ; Uncertainty
WOS关键词: ZHANGHE IRRIGATION SYSTEM ; RESERVOIR OPERATION ; RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ; MODEL ; RAINFALL ; STREAMFLOW ; EXTREME
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Due to climate change and human activities, the assumption of the stationarity of hydrological variables will no longer hold. Moreover, the stochastic uncertainty of hydrological variables introduces huge challenges for water managers. To address nonstationarity and randomness, a new methodology called the nonstationary stochastic simulation-based water allocation approach is proposed to optimize regional water management. This objective is achieved via four steps. First, the generalized additive model is chosen to analyze the nonstationary probability distribution of the hydrological series. Second, the Monte Carlo method is applied to generate an optimized stochastic sample with many possible inflows according to the probability distribution obtained in the previous step. Third, a preallocated water optimization model is set up to optimize water allocation under each possible inflow. Last, the final water allocation plan can be made through statistical analysis of all optimized water allocation schemes obtained in the previous step. The approach can describe the probability distribution of regional water inflow in the planning year more accurately and reflect more stochastic information, which makes the final water allocation plan more reliable. To demonstrate its applicability, the approach was applied to the Zhanghe Irrigation District to optimize available water allocation for municipality, industry, hydropower, and agriculture in a planning year. The annual inflow of the Zhanghe Reservoir was found to be nonstationary. Moreover, an appropriate final water allocation plan in the Zhanghe Irrigation District in the planning year can be obtained through the nonstationary stochastic simulation-based water allocation method, which provides a foundation to water managers for managing water resources under nonstationary and stochastic conditions.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131453
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Changjiang River Sci Res Inst, Water Resources Dept, Wuhan 430010, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China
3.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
4.Hubei Prov Water Resources & Hydropower Planning, 22 Meiyuan Rd, Wuhan 430064, Hubei, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Chen, Shu,Shao, Dongguo,Tan, Xuezhi,et al. Nonstationary Stochastic Simulation-Based Water Allocation Method for Regional Water Management[J]. JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,145(3)
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