globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1338-2
WOS记录号: WOS:000461300900004
论文题名:
Bridging uncertainty concepts across narratives and simulations in environmental scenarios
作者: Pedde, Simona1; Kok, Kasper1; Onigkeit, Janina2; Brown, Calum3; Holman, Ian4; Harrison, Paula A.5
通讯作者: Pedde, Simona
刊名: REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN: 1436-3798
EISSN: 1436-378X
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期:3, 页码:655-666
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Participatory socioeconomic scenarios ; Fuzzy sets ; Linguistic and epistemic uncertainties ; Narratives and environmental models
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGE ; LAND-USE ; IMPACTS ; VULNERABILITY ; ADAPTATION ; ASSESSMENTS ; INDICATORS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Uncertainties in our understanding of current and future climate change projections, impacts and vulnerabilities are structured by scientists using scenarios, which are generally in qualitative (narrative) and quantitative (numerical) forms. Although conceptually strong, qualitative and quantitative scenarios have limited complementarity due to the lack of a fundamental bridge between two different concepts of uncertainty: linguistic and epistemic. Epistemic uncertainty is represented by the range of scenarios and linguistic variables within them, while linguistic uncertainty is represented by the translation of those linguistic variables via the fuzzy set approach. Both are therefore incorporated in the models that utilise the final quantifications. The application of this method is demonstrated in a stakeholder-led development of socioeconomic scenarios. The socioeconomic scenarios include several vague elements due to heterogeneous linguistic interpretations of future change on the part of stakeholders. We apply the so-called Centre of Gravity' (CoG) operator to defuzzify the quantifications of linguistic values provided by stakeholders. The results suggest that, in these cases, uniform distributions provide a close fit to the membership functions derived from ranges of values provided by stakeholders. As a result, the 90 or 95% intervals of the probability density functions are similar to the 0.1 or 0.05 degrees of membership of the linguistic values of linguistic variables. By bridging different uncertainty concepts (linguistic and epistemic uncertainties), this study offers a substantial step towards linking qualitative and quantitative scenarios.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131495
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Wageningen Univ, Soil Geog & Landscape Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
2.Fed Inst Hydrol, Mainzer Tor 1, D-56068 Koblenz, Germany
3.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Atmospher Environm Res IMK IFU, Kreuzeckbahnstr 19, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany
4.Cranfield Univ, Cranfield Water Sci Inst, Coll Rd, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England
5.Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lib Ave, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England

Recommended Citation:
Pedde, Simona,Kok, Kasper,Onigkeit, Janina,et al. Bridging uncertainty concepts across narratives and simulations in environmental scenarios[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2019-01-01,19(3):655-666
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