globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1400-0
WOS记录号: WOS:000461300900003
论文题名:
New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways
作者: Kok, Kasper1; Pedde, Simona1; Gramberger, Marc2; Harrison, Paula A.3; Holman, Ian P.4
通讯作者: Kok, Kasper
刊名: REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN: 1436-3798
EISSN: 1436-378X
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期:3, 页码:643-654
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Shared socio-economic pathways ; Socio-economic scenario ; Multi-scale ; Europe ; Narratives
WOS关键词: ADAPTATION ; MULTISCALE ; SCALES ; DYNAMICS ; IMPACTS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Scenarios have been recognised as a useful tool for planning, which have resulted in a strong increase in the number of (multi-scale) scenarios in climate change research. This paper addresses the need for methodological progress and testing of conceptual considerations, by extending the global shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We present a set of four European SSPs until 2100 and a novel method to develop qualitative stories for Europe equivalent to the global SSPs starting from an existing set of European scenarios. Similar to the global SSPs, the set includes a sustainable future with global cooperation and less intensive lifestyles (We are the World; Eur-SSP1); a future in which countries struggle to maintain living standards in a high-carbon intensive Europe (Icarus; Eur-SSP3); a world in which power becomes concentrated in a small elite and where Europe becomes an important player (Riders on the Storm; Eur-SSP4); and one where a lack of environmental concern leads to the over-exploitation of fossil fuel resources addressed by technological solutions (Fossil-fuelled Development; Eur-SSP5). We conclude that the global SSPs are a good starting point for developing equivalent continental scale scenarios that, in turn, can serve multiple purposes. There are, however, methodological challenges related to the choice for equivalence and the exact methods by which scenarios are constructed that need to be tested further.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131593
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Wageningen Univ, Soil Geog & Landscape Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
2.Prospex Bvba, Vlugestal 6, B-3140 Keerbergen, Belgium
3.Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England
4.Cranfield Univ, Cranfield Water Sci Inst, Bedford MK43 0AL, England

Recommended Citation:
Kok, Kasper,Pedde, Simona,Gramberger, Marc,et al. New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2019-01-01,19(3):643-654
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