globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0167.1
WOS记录号: WOS:000460638000001
论文题名:
Influence of Internal Variability and Global Warming on Multidecadal Changes in Regional Drought Severity over the Continental United States
作者: Apurv, Tushar1; Cai, Ximing1; Yuan, Xing2
通讯作者: Cai, Ximing
刊名: JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
ISSN: 1525-755X
EISSN: 1525-7541
出版年: 2019
卷: 20, 期:3, 页码:411-429
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drought ; Sea surface temperature ; Climate change ; Multidecadal variability
WOS关键词: SUMMER RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; WESTERN NORTH-AMERICA ; CLIMATE ; PACIFIC ; ENSO ; INTENSIFICATION ; PRECIPITATION ; OSCILLATION ; FREQUENCY ; SIMULATIONS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Meteorological droughts in the continental United States (CONUS) are known to oscillate at the multidecadal time scale in response to the sea surface temperatures (SST) variability over the Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean. While previous studies have focused on understanding the influence of SST oscillations on drought frequency over the CONUS, this information has not been integrated with global warming for future drought risk assessment at the decadal scale. In this study, we use the support vector machines (SVMs) to handle correlation between input variables for quantifying the influence of internal variability [Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] and global warming on the decadal changes in the severity of seasonal droughts over the CONUS during 1901-2015. The regional drivers of drought severity identified using SVMs are used for the assessment of decadal drought risk in the near future. We find internal variability as the dominant driver of decadal changes in drought severity in the southern and central Great Plains and global warming as the dominant driver for the southeastern and southwestern United States. In the southern Plains, the existing pattern of increasing drought severity is likely to persist in the near future if AMO and PDO remain in their positive and negative phases, respectively, while global warming is likely to contribute to increasing drought severity in the Southeast and Southwest. This study suggests an emerging role of global warming in drought risk over the southern states, where near-term climate change adaptation is necessary.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131622
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Illinois, VenTe Chow Hydrosyst Lab, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Urbana, IL 61801 USA
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Apurv, Tushar,Cai, Ximing,Yuan, Xing. Influence of Internal Variability and Global Warming on Multidecadal Changes in Regional Drought Severity over the Continental United States[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,2019-01-01,20(3):411-429
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