globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1433-4
WOS记录号: WOS:000461300900017
论文题名:
South Asian river basins in a 1.5 degrees C warmer world
作者: Lutz, Arthur F.1; ter Maat, Herbert W.2; Wijngaard, Rene R.1,3; Biemans, Hester4; Syed, Abu5; Shrestha, Arun B.6; Wester, Philippus6; Immerzeel, Walter W.1,3
通讯作者: Lutz, Arthur F.
刊名: REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN: 1436-3798
EISSN: 1436-378X
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期:3, 页码:833-847
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; 1 ; 5 degrees ; South Asia ; Indus ; Ganges ; Brahmaputra ; Paris agreement
WOS关键词: SEA-LEVEL RISE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DEGREES-C ; PARIS AGREEMENT ; ADAPTATION ; IMPACTS ; CONSISTENT ; INCREASE ; FLOWS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

In 2015, with the signing of the Paris Agreement, 195 countries committed to limiting the increase in global temperature to less than 2 degrees C with respect to pre-industrial levels and to aim at limiting the increase to 1.5 degrees C by 2100. The regional ramifications of those thresholds remain however largely unknown and variability in the magnitude of change and the associated impacts are yet to be quantified. We provide a regional quantitative assessment of the impacts of a 1.5 versus a 2 degrees C global warming for a major global climate change hotspot: the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins (IGB) in South Asia, by analyzing changes in climate change indicators based on 1.5 and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios. In the analyzed ensemble of general circulation models, a global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C implies a temperature increase of 1.4-2.6 (=2.1) degrees C for the IGB. For the 2.0 degrees C scenario, the increase would be 2.0-3.4 (=2.7) degrees C. We show that climate change impacts are more adverse under 2 degrees C versus 1.5 degrees C warming and that changes in the indicators' values are in general linearly correlated to average temperature increase. We also show that for climate projections following Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, which may be more realistic, the regional temperature increases and changes in climate change indicators are much stronger than for the 1.5 and 2 degrees C scenarios.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131678
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.FutureWater, Costerweg 1V, NL-6702 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
2.Municipal Enschede, Enschede, Netherlands
3.Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Utrecht, Netherlands
4.Wageningen Environm Res, Wageningen, Netherlands
5.Bangladesh Ctr Adv Studies, Dhaka, Bangladesh
6.Int Ctr Integrated Mt Dev, Kathmandu, Nepal

Recommended Citation:
Lutz, Arthur F.,ter Maat, Herbert W.,Wijngaard, Rene R.,et al. South Asian river basins in a 1.5 degrees C warmer world[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2019-01-01,19(3):833-847
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