globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-38962-4
WOS记录号: WOS:000460391500104
论文题名:
Climate change drives trait-shifts in coral reef communities
作者: Kubicek, Andreas1,2; Breckling, Broder3,6; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove1,2,4; Reuter, Hauke5,6
通讯作者: Kubicek, Andreas
刊名: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN: 2045-2322
出版年: 2019
卷: 9
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODELS ; LIFE-HISTORIES ; FUTURE ; GROWTH ; REPRODUCTION ; HYBRIDIZATION ; RECRUITMENT ; ADAPTATION ; RESILIENCE ; PLASTICITY
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Climate change is expected to have profound, partly unforeseeable effects on the composition of functional traits of complex ecosystems, such as coral reefs, and some ecosystem properties are at risk of disappearing. This study applies a novel spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore three critical life history traits of corals: heat tolerance, competitiveness and growth performance under various environmental settings. Building upon these findings, we test the adaptation potential required by a coral community in order to not only survive but also retain its diversity by the end of this century under different IPCC climate scenarios. Even under the most favourable IPCC scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 2.6), model results indicate that shifts in the trait space are likely and coral communities will mainly consist of small numbers of temperature-tolerant and fast-growing species. Species composition of coral communities is likely to be determined by heat tolerance, with competitiveness most likely playing a subordinate role. To sustain similar to 15% of current coral cover under a 2 degrees C temperature increase by the end of the century (RCP 4.5), coral systems would have to accommodate temperature increases of 0.1-0.15 degrees C per decade, assuming that periodic extreme thermal events occurred every 8 years. These required adaptation rates are unprecedented and unlikely, given corals' life-history characteristics.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131835
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, Coral Reef Ecosyst Lab, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia
2.Univ Queensland, Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Coral Reef, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia
3.Univ Vechta, Dept Landscape Ecol, D-49364 Vechta, Germany
4.Univ Queensland, Global Change Inst, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
5.Leibniz Ctr Trop Marine Res ZMT, Dept Theoret Ecol & Modelling, D-28359 Bremen, Germany
6.Univ Bremen, Fac Biol & Chem, D-28359 Bremen, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Kubicek, Andreas,Breckling, Broder,Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove,et al. Climate change drives trait-shifts in coral reef communities[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2019-01-01,9
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