globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.3390/atmos10030130
WOS记录号: WOS:000464177900001
论文题名:
Regional Frequency Analysis of Precipitation Extremes and Its Spatio-Temporal Patterns in the Hanjiang River Basin, China
作者: Hao, Wenlong1; Hao, Zhenchun1; Yuan, Feifei1; Ju, Qin1; Hao, Jie2
通讯作者: Hao, Zhenchun
刊名: ATMOSPHERE
ISSN: 2073-4433
出版年: 2019
卷: 10, 期:3
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme rainfall ; regional frequency analysis ; L-moments ; Hanjiang river basin
WOS关键词: YANGTZE-RIVER ; DETECT TREND ; L-MOMENT ; RAINFALL ; FLOOD ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; QUALITY
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Extreme events such as rainstorms and floods are likely to increase in frequency due to the influence of global warming, which is expected to put considerable pressure on water resources. This paper presents a regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes and its spatio-temporal pattern characteristics based on well-known index-flood L-moments methods and the application of advanced statistical tests and spatial analysis techniques. The results indicate the following conclusions. First, during the period between 1969 and 2015, the annual precipitation extremes at Fengjie station show a decreasing trend, but the Wuhan station shows an increasing trend, and the other 24 stations have no significant trend at a 5% confidence level. Secondly, the Hanjiang River Basin can be categorized into three homogenous regions by hierarchical clustering analysis with the consideration of topography and mean precipitation in these areas. The GEV, GNO, GPA and P III distributions fit better for most of the basin and MARE values range from 3.19% to 6.41% demonstrating that the best-fit distributions for each homogenous region is adequate in predicting the quantiles estimates. Thirdly, quantile estimates are reliable enough when the return period is less than 100 years, however estimates for a higher return period (e.g., 1000 years) become unreliable. Further, the uncertainty of quantiles estimations is growing with the growing return periods and the estimates based on R95P series have a smaller uncertainty to describe the extreme precipitation in the Hanjiang river basin (HJRB). Furthermore, In the HJRB, most of the extreme precipitation events (more than 90%) occur during the rainy season between May and October, and more than 30% of these extreme events concentrate in July, which is mainly impacted by the sub-tropical monsoon climate. Finally, precipitation extremes are mainly concentrated in the areas of Du River, South River and Daba Mountain in region I and Tianmen, Wuhan and Zhongxiang stations in region III, located in the upstream of Danjiangkou Reservoir and Jianghan Plain respectively. There areas provide sufficient climate conditions (e.g., humidity and precipitation) responsible for the occurring floods and will increase the risk of natural hazards to these areas.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131870
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
2.Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, Mat & Struct Engn Dept, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Hao, Wenlong,Hao, Zhenchun,Yuan, Feifei,et al. Regional Frequency Analysis of Precipitation Extremes and Its Spatio-Temporal Patterns in the Hanjiang River Basin, China[J]. ATMOSPHERE,2019-01-01,10(3)
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