globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.184
WOS记录号: WOS:000455034600103
论文题名:
A Petri net modeling approach to explore the temporal dynamics of the provision of multiple ecosystem services
作者: Rova, Silvia1; Meire, Patrick2; Mueller, Felix3; Simeoni, Marta1; Pranovi, Fabio1
通讯作者: Rova, Silvia
刊名: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN: 0048-9697
EISSN: 1879-1026
出版年: 2019
卷: 655, 页码:1047-1061
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ecosystem services interactions ; Integrated management ; Social-ecological systems ; Venice lagoon ; Climate change
WOS关键词: SEA-LEVEL RISE ; VENICE LAGOON ; SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS ; COUPLED HUMAN ; TRADE-OFFS ; FRAMEWORK ; TEMPERATURE ; CHALLENGES ; MANAGEMENT ; SYSTEMS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

The representation of the temporal dynamics of ecosystem services (ES) is a crucial research frontier in the field of ES modeling. In fact, most current ES models focus on static ES assessments, that need to be repeated with different inputs per time step to explore potential changes in ES. Here, we present a new approach for the dynamic modeling of multiple ES, based on the Petri Net modeling framework. The key features are: (i) multiple ES are modeled together as a single network, using a social-ecological systems (SES) perspective; (ii) the model accounts for the interactions occurring among ES, by distinguishing between the ES whose provision is mediated by some type of human input, which can produce some side-effects on the system, and those that are generated directly through ecosystem functions and do not generate side-effects; (iii) the model can reproduce the effects of changing drivers on the elements of the SES. These features allow to use the model to explore how ES can evolve over time under different "what-if" scenarios. The importance of considering the ES interactions is tested, showing that failing to include them in the model remarkably affects the results. Due to its complexity, the model should be used as an exploratory tool, focusing on the analysis of the general trends of multiple ES provision, rather than on the generation of quantitative projections. A first conceptual application to the Venice lagoon, Italy, is presented, in which the trends of 13 different ES are simulated. This application shows the potential of the model in exploring the development produced by climate change and socio-economic pressures, and the effects of a set of possible management actions. This modeling approach can contribute to generate new perspectives on the dynamic modeling of multiple ES and on the integrated management of SES. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131894
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Ca Foscari Venice, Environm Sci Informat & Stat Dept, Via Torino 155, I-30170 Venice, Italy
2.Univ Antwerp, Dept Biol, Ecosyst Management Res Grp, Univ Pl 1C, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium
3.Christian Albrechts Univ Kiel, Inst Nat Resource Conservat, Olshausenstr 75, D-24118 Kiel, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Rova, Silvia,Meire, Patrick,Mueller, Felix,et al. A Petri net modeling approach to explore the temporal dynamics of the provision of multiple ecosystem services[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019-01-01,655:1047-1061
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