globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-40766-5
WOS记录号: WOS:000460922200057
论文题名:
Effects of species traits and environmental predictors on performance and transferability of ecological niche models
作者: Regos, Adrian1,2; Gagne, Laura3; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo4,5,6; Honrado, Joao P.2,7; Dominguez, Jesus1
通讯作者: Regos, Adrian
刊名: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN: 2045-2322
出版年: 2019
卷: 9
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: TEMPORAL TRANSFERABILITY ; GLOBAL CHANGE ; MULTIMODEL INFERENCE ; PROTECTED AREAS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; CONSERVATION ; FUTURE ; RANGE ; ACCURACY
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

The ability of ecological niche models (ENMs) to produce robust predictions for different time frames (i.e. temporal transferability) may be hindered by a lack of ecologically relevant predictors. Model performance may also be affected by species traits, which may reflect different responses to processes controlling species distribution. In this study, we tested four primary hypotheses involving the role of species traits and environmental predictors in ENM performance and transferability. We compared the predictive accuracy of ENMs based upon (1) climate, (2) land-use/cover (LULC) and (3) ecosystem functional attributes (EFAs), and (4) the combination of these factors for 27 bird species within and beyond the time frame of model calibration. The combination of these factors significantly increased both model performance and transferability, highlighting the need to integrate climate, LULC and EFAs to improve biodiversity projections. However, the overall model transferability was low (being only acceptable for less than 25% of species), even under a hierarchical modelling approach, which calls for great caution in the use of ENMs to predict bird distributions under global change scenarios. Our findings also indicate that positive effects of species traits on predictive accuracy within model calibration are not necessarily translated into higher temporal transferability.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131939
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Santiago de Compostela, Dept Zool Xenet & Antropol Fis, Santiago De Compostela, Spain
2.Univ Porto, Res Ctr Biodivers & Genet Resources CIBIO InBIO, Vairao, Portugal
3.Univ Niza Sophia Antipolis, Nice, France
4.Univ Granada, Dept Bot, Granada, Spain
5.Univ Granada, Univ Inst Earth Syst Res, Granada, Spain
6.Univ Almeria, Andalusian Ctr Assessment & Monitoring Global Cha, Almeria, Spain
7.Univ Porto, Fac Ciencias, Porto, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Regos, Adrian,Gagne, Laura,Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo,et al. Effects of species traits and environmental predictors on performance and transferability of ecological niche models[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2019-01-01,9
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