globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.3390/w11030532
WOS记录号: WOS:000464541300007
论文题名:
Future Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Based on Nonstationary Joint Drought Management Index
作者: Yu, Jisoo1; Kim, Tae-Woong2; Park, Dong-Hyeok1
通讯作者: Park, Dong-Hyeok
刊名: WATER
ISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:3
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; drought ; GAMLSS ; nonstationarity
WOS关键词: RESOLUTION CLIMATE CHANGES ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; ADDITIVE-MODELS ; RELIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; THRESHOLD ; LOCATION ; COPULA ; SCALE
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

As the environment changes, the stationarity assumption in hydrological analysis has become questionable. If nonstationarity of an observed time series is not fully considered when handling climate change scenarios, the outcomes of statistical analyses would be invalid in practice. This study established bivariate time-varying copula models for risk analysis based on the generalized additive models in location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) theory to develop the nonstationary joint drought management index (JDMI). Two kinds of daily streamflow data from the Soyang River basin were used; one is that observed during 1976-2005, and the other is that simulated for the period 2011-2099 from 26 climate change scenarios. The JDMI quantified the multi-index of reliability and vulnerability of hydrological drought, both of which cause damage to the hydrosystem. Hydrological drought was defined as the low-flow events that occur when streamflow is equal to or less than Q80 calculated from observed data, allowing future drought risk to be assessed and compared with the past. Then, reliability and vulnerability were estimated based on the duration and magnitude of the events, respectively. As a result, the JDMI provided the expected duration and magnitude quantities of drought or water deficit.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131972
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Hanyang Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seoul 04763, South Korea
2.Hanyang Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ansan 15588, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Yu, Jisoo,Kim, Tae-Woong,Park, Dong-Hyeok. Future Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Based on Nonstationary Joint Drought Management Index[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(3)
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