globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13378
WOS记录号: WOS:000460470500007
论文题名:
Quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy, using high-resolution regional projections
作者: D'; Oria, Marco; Ferraresi, Massimo; Tanda, Maria Giovanna
通讯作者: D&#39 ; Oria, Marco
刊名: HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
ISSN: 0885-6087
EISSN: 1099-1085
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:6, 页码:978-993
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; hydrological modelling ; model calibration ; regional climate model ; uncertainty ; water resources
WOS关键词: MODEL ; SCENARIOS ; RIVER
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

This paper investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy. A continuous hydrological model for each of the seven river basins within the study area was calibrated using historical data. The models were then driven by downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections of an ensemble of 13 regional climate models (RCMs), under two different scenarios of representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The impacts were examined at medium term (2031-2040) and long term (2051-2060) in comparison with a reference period (2003-2012); the changes in rainfall, streamflow, and groundwater recharge were investigated. A high degree of uncertainty characterized the results with a significant intermodel variability, the period being equal. For the sake of brevity, only the results for the Serchio River basin were presented in detail. According to the RCM ensemble mean and the RCP4.5, a moderate decrease in rainfall, with reference to 2003-2012, is expected at medium term (-0.6%) and long term (-2.8%). Due to the warming of the study area, the reduction in the streamflow volume is two times the precipitation decrease (-1.1% and -6.8% at medium and long term, respectively). The groundwater recharge is mainly affected by the changes in climate with expected percolation volume variations of -3.3% at 2031-2040 and -8.1% at 2051-2060. The impacts on the Serchio River basin water resources are less significant under the RCP8.5 scenario. The presence of artificial structures, such as dam-reservoir systems, can contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change on water resources through the implementation of appropriate regulation strategies.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132015
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Univ Parma, Dept Engn & Architecture, Parco Area Sci 181-A, I-43124 Parma, Italy

Recommended Citation:
D',Oria, Marco,Ferraresi, Massimo,et al. Quantifying the impacts of climate change on water resources in northern Tuscany, Italy, using high-resolution regional projections[J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,2019-01-01,33(6):978-993
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[D']'s Articles
[Oria, Marco]'s Articles
[Ferraresi, Massimo]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[D']'s Articles
[Oria, Marco]'s Articles
[Ferraresi, Massimo]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[D']‘s Articles
[Oria, Marco]‘s Articles
[Ferraresi, Massimo]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.