globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-41196-z
WOS记录号: WOS:000461762600039
论文题名:
Uncertainty and hotspots in 21st century projections of agricultural drought from CMIP5 models
作者: Lu, Junyu1; Carbone, Gregory J.1; Grego, John M.2
通讯作者: Lu, Junyu
刊名: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN: 2045-2322
出版年: 2019
卷: 9
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: SOIL-MOISTURE ; UNITED-STATES ; SURFACE ; CLIMATE
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Future climate changes could alter hydrometeorological patterns and change the nature of droughts at global to regional scales. However, there are considerable uncertainties in future drought projections. Here, we focus on agricultural drought by analyzing surface soil moisture outputs from CMIP5 multi-model ensembles (MMEs) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. First, the annual mean soil moisture by the end of the 21st century shows statistically significant large-scale drying and limited areas of wetting for all scenarios, with stronger drying as the strength of radiative forcing increases. Second, the MME mean spatial extent of severe drought is projected to increase for all regions and all future RCP scenarios, and most notably in Central America (CAM), Europe and Mediterranean (EUM), Tropical South America (TSA), and South Africa (SAF). Third, the model uncertainty presents the largest source of uncertainty (over 80%) across the entire 21st century among the three sources of uncertainty: internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. Finally, we find that the spatial pattern and magnitude of annual and seasonal signal to noise (S/N) in soil moisture anomalies do not change significantly by lead time, indicating that the spreads of uncertainties become larger as the signals become stronger.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132231
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ South Carolina, Dept Geog, Columbia, SC 29208 USA
2.Univ South Carolina, Dept Stat, Columbia, SC 29208 USA

Recommended Citation:
Lu, Junyu,Carbone, Gregory J.,Grego, John M.. Uncertainty and hotspots in 21st century projections of agricultural drought from CMIP5 models[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2019-01-01,9
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