globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1683-2019
WOS记录号: WOS:000462074500001
论文题名:
Multivariate hydrologic design methods under nonstationary conditions and application to engineering practice
作者: Jiang, Cong1; Xiong, Lihua2; Yan, Lei3; Dong, Jianfan4; Xu, Chong-Yu2,5
通讯作者: Jiang, Cong
刊名: HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
ISSN: 1027-5606
EISSN: 1607-7938
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期:3, 页码:1683-1704
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: FLOOD FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; CHANGE-POINT DETECTION ; JOINT PROBABILITY ANALYSIS ; RETURN PERIOD ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EXTREME RAINFALL ; STORM-SURGE ; RISK ; DEPENDENCE ; SELECTION
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Geology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Multivariate hydrologic design under stationary conditions is traditionally performed through the use of the design criterion of the return period, which is theoretically equal to the average inter-arrival time of flood events divided by the exceedance probability of the design flood event. Under nonstationary conditions, the exceedance probability of a given multivariate flood event varies over time. This suggests that the traditional return-period concept cannot apply to engineering practice under nonstationary conditions, since by such a definition, a given multivariate flood event would correspond to a time-varying return period. In this paper, average annual reliability (AAR) was employed as the criterion for multivariate design rather than the return period to ensure that a given multivariate flood event corresponded to a unique design level under nonstationary conditions. The multivariate hydrologic design conditioned on the given AAR was estimated from the nonstationary multivariate flood distribution constructed by a dynamic C-vine copula, allowing for time-varying marginal distributions and a time-varying dependence structure. Both the most-likely design event and confidence interval for the multivariate hydrologic design conditioned on the given AAR were identified to provide supporting information for designers. The multivariate flood series from the Xijiang River, China, were chosen as a case study. The results indicated that both the marginal distributions and dependence structure of the multivariate flood series were nonstationary due to the driving forces of urbanization and reservoir regulation. The nonstationarities of both the marginal distributions and dependence structure were found to affect the outcome of the multivariate hydrologic design.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132320
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.China Univ Geosci, Sch Environm Studies, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China
3.Hebei Univ Engn, Coll Water Conservancy & Hydropower, Handan 056002, Peoples R China
4.Guangxi Water Resources Management Ctr, Nanning 530023, Peoples R China
5.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, POB 1047, N-0316 Oslo, Norway

Recommended Citation:
Jiang, Cong,Xiong, Lihua,Yan, Lei,et al. Multivariate hydrologic design methods under nonstationary conditions and application to engineering practice[J]. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2019-01-01,23(3):1683-1704
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