globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0214665
WOS记录号: WOS:000462594000106
论文题名:
Projected heat stress challenges and abatement opportunities for US milk production
作者: Gunn, Kpoti M.1; Holly, Michael A.1; Veith, Tamie L.1; Buda, Anthony R.1; Prasad, Rishi2; Rotz, C. Alan1; Soder, Kathy J.1; Stoner, Anne M. K.3
通讯作者: Gunn, Kpoti M.
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:3
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CALF BIRTH-WEIGHT ; DAIRY-COWS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LATE-GESTATION ; HOLSTEIN COWS ; DRY COWS ; TEMPERATURE ; YIELD ; CATTLE ; PERFORMANCE
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Cost-effective heat mitigation strategies are imperative for maintaining milk production and dairy farm profitability in the U.S. with projected climate change. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of four heat abatement strategies, including Minimal (open barn or shading), Moderate (forced ventilation), High (fans and misting), and Intense (air conditioning). Heat stress and subsequent impacts on milk production per cow were predicted across nine climatic regions in the U.S. for early (2015 to 2034), mid (2045 to 2064) and late (2081 to 2100) 21st century, using downscaled climate projections. Heat abatements were used to adjust predicted milk production losses and illustrate the potential to reduce milk production losses due to heat stress. Economic analysis included a cost-benefit ratio calculation associated with the implementation of each heat abatement. Results showed that milk production losses were expected to accelerate across the U.S. at a mean rate of 174 +/- 7 kg/cow/decade, with the fastest rate in the Southeast region. Relative to Minimal heat abatement, Moderate, High, and Intense heat abatements increased annual milk production per cow by 3%, 4%, and 6% during early-21st century, 3%, 6%, and 11% during mid-21st century, and 3%, 8%, and 21% during late-21st century, respectively. The cost effectiveness of different heat abatement strategies generally increased with subsequently stronger heat abatements. In mid- and late-21st century, mean annual net values of High and Intense heat stress abatement implementation approached -$30 to $190 /cow and -$20 to $590 /cow, respectively, with the largest net annual benefit in late-21st century under Intense abatement. Findings from the study demonstrate the value of using downscaled climate projections to shed light on local and regional strategies to abate heat stress on cattle and mitigate potential milk production losses due to climate change.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132466
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.USDA ARS, Pasture Syst & Watershed Management Res Unit, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
2.Auburn Univ, Crop Soil & Environm Sci, Auburn, AL 36849 USA
3.Texas Tech Univ, Climate Sci Ctr, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA

Recommended Citation:
Gunn, Kpoti M.,Holly, Michael A.,Veith, Tamie L.,et al. Projected heat stress challenges and abatement opportunities for US milk production[J]. PLOS ONE,2019-01-01,14(3)
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