globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5950
WOS记录号: WOS:000465456400031
论文题名:
Bias nonstationarity of global climate model outputs: The role of internal climate variability and climate model sensitivity
作者: Hui, Yu1; Chen, Jie1; Xu, Chong-Yu1,2; Xiong, Lihua1; Chen, Hua1
通讯作者: Chen, Jie
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:4, 页码:2278-2294
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bias nonstationarity ; climate change signal ; climate model sensitivity ; internal climate variability ; pseudoreality approach
WOS关键词: NATURAL VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; SIMULATIONS ; PROJECTIONS ; IMPACT
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Bias correction methods are developed based on the assumption that the biases of climate model outputs are stationary, that is, the characteristics of the bias are constant over time. However, recent studies have shown the biases are not always stationary. The objectives of this study are to investigate the impacts of bias nonstationarity of climate-model-simulated precipitation and temperature on future climate projections, and the roles of internal climate variability (ICV) and climate model sensitivity (CMS) in bias nonstationarity. A pseudoreality approach is used in this study, in which each of the 24 climate model simulations is alternately selected as a reference to estimate the biases (defined as pseudobias to distinguish it from actual bias estimated by observations) of 23 other simulations. The absolute ratio of the change in pseudobias between two periods to the corresponding climate change signal is calculated to assess the impacts of bias nonstationarity on future climate projections. Furthermore, the roles of ICV and CMS are investigated by comparing the changes in pseudobias between historical and future periods relative to the baseline period. The results show that biases of climate-model-simulated mean annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation vary with time. Bias nonstationarity of temperature is not significant in future temperature projections, while the bias nonstationarity of precipitation plays an important role in future precipitation projections. In addition, the contributions of ICV and CMS to bias nonstationarity are both relatively small for temperature, even though the latter contributes slightly more than the former. However, ICV makes a large contribution to the bias nonstationarity of precipitation for the historical period. In the far future period, the role of CMS is as important as ICV. These results imply that the impacts of ICV and CMS may need to be considered when developing and evaluating a bias correction method, especially for precipitation projections.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132498
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, Oslo, Norway

Recommended Citation:
Hui, Yu,Chen, Jie,Xu, Chong-Yu,et al. Bias nonstationarity of global climate model outputs: The role of internal climate variability and climate model sensitivity[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(4):2278-2294
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Hui, Yu]'s Articles
[Chen, Jie]'s Articles
[Xu, Chong-Yu]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Hui, Yu]'s Articles
[Chen, Jie]'s Articles
[Xu, Chong-Yu]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Hui, Yu]‘s Articles
[Chen, Jie]‘s Articles
[Xu, Chong-Yu]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.