globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5920
WOS记录号: WOS:000465456400004
论文题名:
A method for investigating the relative importance of three components in overall uncertainty of climate projections
作者: Zhuan, Meijia1; Chen, Jie1; Xu, Chong-Yu1,2; Zhao, Cha3; Xiong, Lihua1; Liu, Pan1
通讯作者: Chen, Jie
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:4, 页码:1853-1871
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China ; climate change ; global climate model ; greenhouse gases emissions scenario ; internal climate variability ; uncertainty
WOS关键词: INTERNAL VARIABILITY ; NATURAL VARIABILITY ; CMIP5 ; GENERATION ; ORIGINS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Climate model response (M) and greenhouse gas emissions (S) uncertainties are consistently estimated as spreads of multi-model and multi-scenario climate change projections. There has been less agreement in estimating internal climate variability (V). In recent years, an initial condition ensemble (ICE) of a climate model has been developed to study V. ICE is simulated by running a climate model using an identical climate forcing but different initial conditions. Inter-member differences of an ICE manifestly represent V. However, ICE has been barely used to investigate relative importance of climate change uncertainties. Accordingly, this study proposes a method of using ICEs, without assuming V as constant, for investigating the relative importance of climate change uncertainties and its temporal-spatial variation. Prior to investigating temporal-spatial variation in China, V estimated using ICE was compared to that using multi-model individual time series at national scale. Results show that V using ICE is qualitatively similar to that using multi-model individual time series for temperature. However, V is not constant for average and extreme precipitations. V and M dominate before 2050s especially for precipitation. S is dominant in the late 21st century especially for temperature. Mean temperature change is projected to be 30-70% greater than its uncertainty until 2050s, while uncertainty becomes 10-40% greater than the change in the late 21st century. Precipitation change uncertainty overwhelms its change by 70-150% throughout 21st century. Cold regions (e.g., northern China and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau) tend to have greater temperature change uncertainties. In dry regions (e.g., northwest China), all three uncertainties tend to be great for changes in average and extreme precipitations. This study emphasizes the importance of considering climate change uncertainty in impact studies, especially taking into account that V is irreducible in the future. Using ICEs without assuming V as constant is an appropriate approach to study climate change uncertainty.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132500
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, 299 Bayi Rd, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, Oslo, Norway
3.Univ Quebec, Ecole Technol Super, Montreal, PQ, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Zhuan, Meijia,Chen, Jie,Xu, Chong-Yu,et al. A method for investigating the relative importance of three components in overall uncertainty of climate projections[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(4):1853-1871
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