globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5952
WOS记录号: WOS:000465456400048
论文题名:
New records of monthly temperature extremes as a signal of climate change in Italy
作者: Amendola, Stefano1; Maimone, Filippo2; Pelino, Vinicio2; Pasini, Antonello3
通讯作者: Amendola, Stefano
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:4, 页码:2491-2503
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change detection ; climatic extremes ; constant climate hypothesis ; temperature historical records
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

In a global warming regime, particular attention must be paid to possible changes in prolonged temperature extreme events on the regional scale, due to their strong impacts. But, while the increase in mean temperature is statistically significant and unequivocal, we do not know if the behaviour of extreme events is another significant signal of climate change or if it is still compatible with a "constant climate", that is, with a stationary distribution of temperatures. Here, we propose a method to study the extremes through the analysis of the trend of the new historical records of mean monthly temperatures, and apply it to data about Italy, a country affected by a warming stronger than the global mean. A deep analysis of a 56-year data set for 54 Italian stations and the use of Monte-Carlo simulations permits us to achieve the evidence of a climate change also from the analysis of extremes. This analysis is performed at both the national level and for clusters of stations. The results show that the number of warm records increases more than what is expected by a constant climate "law," in some months reaching or even overpassing the 95th percentile: May, June, July, and especially August appear as the most significant in this respect. Vice versa, the number of cold records lies often close to the fifth percentile or even under it; furthermore, in many months the cold records are very few after the middle of the 1990s. Some months can be, however, seen as "stationary islands." For instance, the behaviour of the number of warm records in December and January follows closely the hypothesis of a constant climate, even if, in contrast, the cold records in January lie under the fifth percentile.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132501
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Roma Tre Univ, Dept Math & Phys, Via Vasca Navale 84, I-00146 Rome, Italy
2.Italian Air Force, CNMCA, Pomezia, Italy
3.CNR, Inst Atmospher Pollut Res, Rome, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Amendola, Stefano,Maimone, Filippo,Pelino, Vinicio,et al. New records of monthly temperature extremes as a signal of climate change in Italy[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(4):2491-2503
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