globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13391
WOS记录号: WOS:000461380600008
论文题名:
Wavelet-copula-based mutual information for rainfall forecasting applications
作者: Abdourahamane, Zakari Seybou1,2; Acar, Resat2; Serkan, Senocak2
通讯作者: Abdourahamane, Zakari Seybou
刊名: HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
ISSN: 0885-6087
EISSN: 1099-1085
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:7, 页码:1127-1142
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate index ; copula function ; mutual information ; rainfall predictor selection ; Sahel ; wavelet transform
WOS关键词: ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORK ; INPUT VARIABLE SELECTION ; PART 1 ; PREDICTION ; DROUGHT ; LEVEL
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Under a climate change, the physical factors that influence the rainfall regime are diverse and difficult to predict. The selection of skilful inputs for rainfall forecasting models is, therefore, more challenging. This paper combines wavelet transform and Frank copula function in a mutual information-based input variable selection (IVS) for non-linear rainfall forecasting models. The marginal probability density functions (PDFs) of a set of potential rainfall predictors and the rainfall series (predictand) were computed using a wavelet density estimator. The Frank copula function was applied to compute the joint PDF of the predictors and the predictand from their marginal PDFs. The relationship between the rainfall series and the potential predictors was assessed based on the mutual information computed from their marginal and joint PDFs. Finally, the minimum redundancy maximum relevance was used as an IVS stopping criterion to determine the number of skilful input variables. The proposed approach was applied to four stations of the Nigerien Sahel with rainfall series spanning the period 1950-2016 by considering 24 climate indices as potential predictors. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, artificial neural networks, and random forest-based forecast models were used to assess the skill of the proposed IVS method. The three forecasting models yielded satisfactory results, exhibiting a coefficient of determination between 0.52 and 0.69 and a mean absolute percentage error varying from 13.6% to 21%. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system performed better than the other models at all the stations. A comparison made with KDE-based mutual information showed the advantage of the proposed wavelet-copula approach.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132526
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Ataturk Univ, Grad Sch Nat & Appl Sci, Erzurum, Turkey
2.Ataturk Univ, Dept Civil Engn, TR-25030 Erzurum, Turkey

Recommended Citation:
Abdourahamane, Zakari Seybou,Acar, Resat,Serkan, Senocak. Wavelet-copula-based mutual information for rainfall forecasting applications[J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,2019-01-01,33(7):1127-1142
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