globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001074
WOS记录号: WOS:000467396900005
论文题名:
Probabilistic Models Significantly Reduce Uncertainty in Hurricane Harvey Pluvial Flood Loss Estimates
作者: Roezer, Viktor1,2; Kreibich, Heidi1; Schroeter, Kai1; Mueller, Meike3; Sairam, Nivedita1,4; Doss-Gollin, James5; Lall, Upmanu5,6; Merz, Bruno1,2
通讯作者: Roezer, Viktor
刊名: EARTHS FUTURE
ISSN: 2328-4277
出版年: 2019
卷: 7, 期:4, 页码:384-394
语种: 英语
英文关键词: pluvial flooding ; loss modeling ; urban flooding ; probabilistic ; Hurricane Harvey ; climate change adaptation
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DAMAGE ASSESSMENT ; RISK ; REGRESSION ; RAINFALL
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Pluvial flood risk is mostly excluded in urban flood risk assessment. However, the risk of pluvial flooding is a growing challenge with a projected increase of extreme rainstorms compounding with an ongoing global urbanization. Considered as a flood type with minimal impacts when rainfall rates exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, the aftermath of rainfall-triggered flooding during Hurricane Harvey and other events show the urgent need to assess the risk of pluvial flooding. Due to the local extent and small-scale variations, the quantification of pluvial flood risk requires risk assessments on high spatial resolutions. While flood hazard and exposure information is becoming increasingly accurate, the estimation of losses is still a poorly understood component of pluvial flood risk quantification. We use a new probabilistic multivariable modeling approach to estimate pluvial flood losses of individual buildings, explicitly accounting for the associated uncertainties. Except for the water depth as the common most important predictor, we identified the drivers for having loss or not and for the degree of loss to be different. Applying this approach to estimate and validate building structure losses during Hurricane Harvey using a property level data set, we find that the reliability and dispersion of predictive loss distributions vary widely depending on the model and aggregation level of property level loss estimates. Our results show that the use of multivariable zero-inflated beta models reduce the 90% prediction intervalsfor Hurricane Harvey building structure loss estimates on average by 78% (totalling U.S.$3.8 billion) compared to commonly used models.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132733
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Helmholtz Ctr Potsdam, Sect Hydrol, Potsdam, Germany
2.Univ Potsdam, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, Potsdam, Germany
3.Deutsch Ruckversicherung AG, Dusseldorf, Germany
4.Humboldt Univ, Geog Dept, Berlin, Germany
5.Columbia Univ, Columbia Water Ctr, New York, NY USA
6.Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Engn, New York, NY USA

Recommended Citation:
Roezer, Viktor,Kreibich, Heidi,Schroeter, Kai,et al. Probabilistic Models Significantly Reduce Uncertainty in Hurricane Harvey Pluvial Flood Loss Estimates[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2019-01-01,7(4):384-394
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