The Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes have been subject to strong pressure from agricultural expansion over the past two decades. A common claim is that the associated tree cover loss was partly driven by speculative land acquisition. In this paper, we analyze the effects of information on planned road infrastructure improvements and changes in conservation policy implementation on expectations of forest conversion. Weuse a unique land price dataset covering the period from 2001-2012. Based on land rent and hedonic valuation theory, we argue that forestland prices convey information on expected future land use. Wedecompose forestland prices into a conventional forestland rent and a speculative part related to forestland conversion and alternative land use rents. Using a fixed-effect panel, we then assess whether, where, and to what extent changes in conservation policy affect forestland prices over time. Our results confirm that forestland prices contain expectations about converting forestland to agricultural or pasture land. Wealso find indications that the Brazilian land market conveys information about potential conservation policy leakage and explore this conjecture descriptively using dynamic deforestation hotspot maps.
1.Univ Bonn, Ctr Dev Res, Genscherallee 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany 2.Univ Bonn, Inst Food & Resource Econ, Nussallee 21, D-53115 Bonn, Germany 3.Mercator Res Inst Global Commons & Climate Change, Torgauer Str 12-15, D-10829 Berlin, Germany 4.Univ Postdam, Fac Econ & Social Sci, August Bebel Str 89, D-14482 Potsdam, Germany 5.Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Ctr Sensoriamento Remoto, Av Antonio Carlos 6627, BR-31270901 Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Miranda, Javier,Boerner, Jan,Kalkuhl, Matthias,et al. Land speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,14(4)