globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5979
WOS记录号: WOS:000467048900011
论文题名:
Quantitative scenarios for future hydrologic extremes in the US Southern Great Plains
作者: Mullens, Esther D.1,2; McPherson, Renee A.1,3
通讯作者: Mullens, Esther D.
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:5, 页码:2659-2676
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; drought ; extreme precipitation ; regional projections ; scenario planning ; statistical downscaling
WOS关键词: CONTERMINOUS UNITED-STATES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PRECIPITATION ; TRENDS ; PROJECTIONS ; CMIP5 ; FREQUENCY ; RAINFALL ; DROUGHT
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Decision-makers using climate projection information are often faced with the problem of data breadth, complexity, and uncertainty, which complicates the translation of climate science products in addressing management challenges. Recently, the concept of climate scenario planning attempts to simplify climate information by developing a series of plausible future storylines. In some cases, however, these storylines lack quantitative detail on extremes that may be useful to decision-makers. Here, we analyse a large suite of statistically downscaled climate projections from two methods to develop quantitative projections for hydrologic extremes (heavy precipitation and drought) across Oklahoma and Texas in the United States. Downscaled projections are grouped into four specific temperature/precipitation scenarios, including Warm/Wet, Hot/Dry, Central Tendency, and the full multi-model ensemble average. The region is split into three sub-domains spanning the region's west-east precipitation gradient, and projections are examined throughout the mid- and late-21st century, using two emissions scenarios (mid-range and high). Most scenarios project increased frequency and duration of moderate or greater drought across the whole domain, with the high-emissions Hot/Dry projections showing the most severe examples. The Warm/Wet scenario also increases the frequency of dry months, particularly in the Southern High Plains, but does not discernably alter duration, and retains a similar frequency of pluvial (wet) periods. The mid-range projections generally retain similar evolutions among scenarios, but they reduce drought intensity and project no change in drought/pluvial frequency with the Warm/Wet scenario. Notably, the occurrence of intense precipitation increases across all scenarios and emissions categories and does not significantly differ between any of the scenarios, including Hot/Dry versus Warm/Wet. Some observed differences in extreme precipitation magnitudes between the two downscaled data sets are briefly discussed.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132863
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.US Dept Interior US DOI, South Cent Climate Adaptat Sci Ctr, Norman, OK USA
2.Univ Florida, Dept Geog, 3141 Turlington Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
3.Univ Oklahoma, Dept Geog & Environm Sustainabil, Norman, OK 73019 USA

Recommended Citation:
Mullens, Esther D.,McPherson, Renee A.. Quantitative scenarios for future hydrologic extremes in the US Southern Great Plains[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(5):2659-2676
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