globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0025.1
WOS记录号: WOS:000457865900001
论文题名:
Using a Multiyear Temporal Climate-Analog Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Park Visitation
作者: Hewer, Micah J.; Gough, William A.
通讯作者: Hewer, Micah J.
刊名: WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
ISSN: 1948-8327
EISSN: 1948-8335
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:2, 页码:291-305
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Climate variability ; Mixed precipitation ; Temperature ; Seasonal effects ; Societal impacts
WOS关键词: INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ; CHANGE VULNERABILITY ; WEATHER SENSITIVITY ; SKI TOURISM ; RECREATION ; CANADA ; BEHAVIOR ; PREFERENCES ; THRESHOLDS ; CAMPERS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Because of the perceived weather sensitivity of park visitation in Ontario, Canada, several previous assessments have examined the impact of climate change. However, these assessments have predominantly been based on modeling approaches (regression analysis). The current study uses a multiyear temporal climate-analog approach to reassess the impact of climate change on visitation to Pinery Provincial Park in southwestern Ontario based on the observed effects of historical climatic anomalies on park visitation from 2000 to 2016. Consideration was also given to major events such as the North American terror attacks on 11 September 2001 and the confounding effect that events such as this may have had on the results. There were no statistically significant relationships (at the 95% confidence level) between seasonal climatic anomalies and park visitation in Ontario during the winter or spring seasons. There was a weak statistical relationship between anomalously warm summer seasons and park visitation, when compared to summer seasons with climatically normal temperatures; however, the presence of nonclimatic variables may have confounded these results, producing a false positive. Autumn-season park visitation was most sensitive to climatic anomalies, with the warmest temperatures causing visitation to increase by 37%, the wettest conditions causing visitation to decrease by 11%, and the driest conditions resulting in a 24% increase. These observed seasonal temperature anomalies represent temporal climate analogs for projected climate change across the span of the twenty-first century. Thus, the results of this study suggest that previous assessments may have overestimated the positive impacts of projected climate change on park visitation in this region.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132932
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Univ Toronto Scarborough, Dept Phys & Environm Sci, Toronto, ON, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Hewer, Micah J.,Gough, William A.. Using a Multiyear Temporal Climate-Analog Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Park Visitation[J]. WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY,2019-01-01,11(2):291-305
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