globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001419
WOS记录号: WOS:000467399500002
论文题名:
Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization
作者: Plotkinl, David A.1; Webber, Robert J.2; O'; Neill, Morgan E.3; Weare, Jonathan2; Abbot, Dorian S.1
通讯作者: Plotkinl, David A.
刊名: JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
ISSN: 1942-2466
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:4, 页码:863-891
语种: 英语
英文关键词: tropical cyclone ; action minimization ; rapid intensification ; WRF
WOS关键词: VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; HURRICANE-LIKE VORTICES ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; RAPID INTENSIFICATION ; 3-DIMENSIONAL PERTURBATIONS ; MAXIMUM INTENSITY ; PART II ; PREDICTABILITY ; ENSEMBLE
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Direct computer simulation of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in weather models is limited by computational expense. Intense TCs are rare and have small-scale structures, making it difficult to produce large ensembles of storms at high resolution. Further, models often fail to capture the process of rapid intensification, which is a distinguishing feature of many intense TCs. Understanding rapid intensification is especially important in the context of global warming, which may increase the frequency of intense TCs. To better leverage computational resources for the study of rapid intensification, we introduce an action minimization algorithm applied to the Weather Research and Forecasting and WRFPLUS models. Action minimization nudges the model into forming more intense TCs than it otherwise would; it does so via the maximum likelihood path in a stochastic formulation of the model, thereby allowing targeted study of intensification mechanisms. We apply action minimization to simulations of Hurricanes Danny (2015) and Fred (2009) at 6-km resolution to demonstrate that the algorithm consistently intensifies TCs via physically plausible pathways. We show an approximately tenfold computational savings using action minimization to study the tail of the TC intensification distribution. Further, for Hurricanes Danny and Fred, action minimization produces perturbations that preferentially reduce low-level shear as compared to upper-level shear, at least above a threshold of approximately 4m/s. We also demonstrate that asymmetric, time-dependent patterns of heating can cause significant TC intensification beyond symmetric, azimuthally averaged heating and find a regime of nonlinear response to asymmetric heating that has not been extensively studied in previous work.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133007
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, 5734 S Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
2.NYU, Courant Inst Math Sci, New York, NY USA
3.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

Recommended Citation:
Plotkinl, David A.,Webber, Robert J.,O',et al. Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization[J]. JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS,2019-01-01,11(4):863-891
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