globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s13351-019-8131-0
WOS记录号: WOS:000468349800010
论文题名:
Assessment of the Capability of ENSEMBLES Hindcasts in Predicting Spring Climate in China
作者: Lin, Yitong; Xu, Haiming; Ma, Jing; Li, Haijun
通讯作者: Xu, Haiming
刊名: JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH
ISSN: 2095-6037
EISSN: 2198-0934
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:2, 页码:307-322
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSEMBLES ; seasonal forecast ; spring climate ; coupled atmosphere-ocean mode
WOS关键词: NORTHWEST PACIFIC ; SUMMER CLIMATE ; EASTERN CHINA ; SOUTH CHINA ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; RAINFALL ; PREDICTABILITY ; VARIABILITY ; FORECASTS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Using the hindcasts provided by the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project for the period of 1980-2005, the forecast capability of spring climate in China is assessed mainly from the aspects of precipitation, 2-m air temperature, and atmospheric circulations. The ENSEMBELS can reproduce the climatology and dominant empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of precipitation and 2-m air temperature, with some differences arising from different initialization months. The multi-model ensemble (MME) forecast of interannual variability is of good performance in some regions such as eastern China with February initialization. The spatial patterns of the MME interannual and inter-member spreads for precipitation and 2-m air temperature are consistent with those of the observed interannual spread, indicating that internal dynamic processes have major impacts on the interannual anomaly of spring climate in China. We have identified two coupled modes between inter-member anomalies of the 850-hPa vorticity in spring and sea surface temperature (SST) both in spring and at a lead of 2 months, of which the first mode shows a significant impact on the spring climate in China, with an anomalous anticyclone located over Northwest Pacific and positive precipitation and southwesterly anomalies in eastern China. Our results also suggest that the SST at a lead of two months may be a predictor for the spring climate in eastern China. A better representation of the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the tropical Pacific, Northwest Pacific, and Indian Ocean can improve the forecast skill of the spring climate in eastern China.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133191
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ,Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Lin, Yitong,Xu, Haiming,Ma, Jing,et al. Assessment of the Capability of ENSEMBLES Hindcasts in Predicting Spring Climate in China[J]. JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH,2019-01-01,33(2):307-322
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