Climate change is expected to lead to more vigorous environmental changes, including soil erosion. As a reliable tool for predicting the impact of changes in climate and land use, the InVEST sediment delivery ratio model, integrated with the EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) regional climate model, was used with the aim of quantifying erosion intensity in the Vranjska Valley region by the end of the twenty-first century. The effect of climate change on spatial and temporal patterns in the Vranjska Valley will lead to a 41.84% reduction in average soil loss by the end of the century when compared to the baseline period. The main reason for this decrease in the soil erosion rate in the second half of the century is a 17.19% fall in the total amount of precipitation, the impact of which will inevitably lead to changes in natural and artificial ecosystems. Furthermore, the results of this study highlight the advantages of an integrated approach, combining the effects of climate change and types of land use, for a better and more realistic estimate of future changes in soil erosion.
1.Univ Belgrade, Dept Ecol, Inst Biol Res Sinisa Stankovic, Bulevar Despota Stefana 142, Belgrade 11060, Serbia 2.Univ Belgrade, Fac Forestry, Kneza Viseslava 1, Belgrade 11030, Serbia 3.Univ Belgrade, Inst Meteorol, Fac Phys, Dobracina 16, Belgrade 11000, Serbia 4.Inst Forestry, Kneza Viseslava 3, Belgrade 11030, Serbia
Recommended Citation:
Perovic, Veljko,Kadovic, Ratko,Djurdjevic, Vladimir,et al. Effects of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion: a case study of the Vranjska Valley, Serbia[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2019-01-01,19(4):1035-1046