globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0210.1
WOS记录号: WOS:000466440100001
论文题名:
The Value of Accurate High-Resolution and Spatially Continuous Snow Information to Streamflow Forecasts
作者: Li, Dongyue1; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.1; Margulis, Steven A.2; Andreadis, Konstantinos3
通讯作者: Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
刊名: JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
ISSN: 1525-755X
EISSN: 1525-7541
出版年: 2019
卷: 20, 期:4, 页码:731-749
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Snow ; Seasonal forecasting ; Data assimilation
WOS关键词: HYDROLOGICALLY BASED DATASET ; LAND-SURFACE FLUXES ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SIERRA-NEVADA ; WATER EQUIVALENT ; UNITED-STATES ; RIVER-BASIN ; MODEL ; RAIN
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Previous studies have shown limited success in improving streamflow forecasting for snow-dominated watersheds using physically based models, primarily due to the lack of reliable snow water equivalent (SWE) information. Here we use a hindcasting approach to evaluate the potential benefit that a high-resolution, spatiotemporally continuous, and accurate SWE reanalysis product would have on the seasonal streamflow forecast in the snow-dominated Sierra Nevada mountains of California if such an SWE product were available in real time. We tested the efficacy of a physically based ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) framework when initialized with the reanalysis SWE. We reinitialized the SWE over the Sierra Nevada at the time when the Sierra Nevada had domain-wide annual maximum SWE for each year in 1985-2015, and on 1 February of the driest years within the same period. The early season forecasts on 1 February provide valuable lead time for mitigating the impact of drought. In both experiments, initializing the ESP with the reanalysis SWE reduced the seasonal streamflow forecast errors; compared with existing operational statistical forecasts, the peak-annual SWE insertion and the 1 February SWE insertion reduced the overall root-mean-square error of the seasonal streamflow forecasts by 13% and 23%, respectively, over the 13 major rivers draining the Sierra Nevada. The benefits of the reanalysis SWE insertion are more pronounced in areas with greater snow accumulation, while the complex snow and runoff-generation processes in low-elevation areas impede the forecasting skill improvement through SWE reinitialization alone.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133324
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Geog, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA
2.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Los Angeles, CA USA
3.Univ Massachusetts Amherst, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Amherst, MA USA

Recommended Citation:
Li, Dongyue,Lettenmaier, Dennis P.,Margulis, Steven A.,et al. The Value of Accurate High-Resolution and Spatially Continuous Snow Information to Streamflow Forecasts[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,2019-01-01,20(4):731-749
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