globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02233-8
WOS记录号: WOS:000466178800012
论文题名:
Dynamic Management of a Water Resources-Socioeconomic-Environmental System Based on Feedbacks Using System Dynamics
作者: Dong, Qianjin1,2; Zhang, Xu1; Chen, Yalin3; Fang, Debin4
通讯作者: Fang, Debin
刊名: WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0920-4741
EISSN: 1573-1650
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:6, 页码:2093-2108
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Dynamic water resources management ; System dynamics ; Feedbacks ; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; RIVER-BASIN ; FOOD NEXUS ; MODEL ; ADAPTATION ; STATIONARITY ; ALLOCATION ; SECURITY ; ENERGY ; DEAD
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

System dynamics (SD) have been used in water resources management for many years. However, water resources management using SD is usually in one direction, up to down or down to up, and does not consider internal and external system feedbacks, which may mislead managers and reduce the adaptability of water resources systems. Therefore, dynamic management of a water resources-socioeconomic-environmental (WSE) system based on feedbacks was established in this paper using SD, and a feedback function considering different intensities of feedbacks was proposed. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTHR), China, was chosen as the study area. Three subsystems were included in the WSE system: a socioeconomic subsystem, a water resources subsystem, and an environmental subsystem. We established and compared different dynamic management scenarios with various intensities of feedbacks. The results show that the shortage of water resources and pollution in the BTHR will continue to deteriorate from 2015 to 2030 if no management measures are taken, and the government should direct more attention to reducing the water demand of primary industry and population growth. In addition, we found that the three subsystems in the WSE system influence each other and evolve mutually. In particular, the influence of the water resources subsystem on the environmental subsystem is remarkable and cannot be ignored. This paper may act as a guide for adaptive and multi-objective management of WSE systems.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133355
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Wuhan Univ, Res Inst Water Secur, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China
3.Nanjing Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Management Sci & Engn, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
4.Wuhan Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Dong, Qianjin,Zhang, Xu,Chen, Yalin,et al. Dynamic Management of a Water Resources-Socioeconomic-Environmental System Based on Feedbacks Using System Dynamics[J]. WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,33(6):2093-2108
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