globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.01.012
WOS记录号: WOS:000463982700012
论文题名:
Projected climate change impacts on future streamflow of the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River
作者: Xu, Ran1; Hu, Hongchang1; Tian, Fuqiang1; Li, Chao2; Khan, Mohd Yawar Ali1,3
通讯作者: Hu, Hongchang
刊名: GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
ISSN: 0921-8181
EISSN: 1872-6364
出版年: 2019
卷: 175, 页码:144-159
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change impacts ; Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River ; Streamflow ; Regional climate integrations ; Bias correction ; Bayesian model averaging
WOS关键词: ELEMENTARY WATERSHED APPROACH ; BIAS CORRECTION ; HYDROLOGICAL MODEL ; COLD REGIONS ; PRECIPITATION ; RUNOFF ; VARIABILITY ; BASIN ; SIMULATIONS ; TEMPERATURE
WOS学科分类: Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Physical Geography ; Geology
英文摘要:

The Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River (YBR) originating from the Tibetan Plateau (TP), is an important water source for many domestic and agricultural practices in countries including China, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh. To date, only a few studies have investigated the impacts of climate change on water resources in this river basin with dispersed results. In this study, we provide a comprehensive and updated assessment of the impacts of climate change on YBR streamflow by integrating a physically based hydrological model, regional climate integrations from CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), different bias correction methods, and Bayesian model averaging method. We find that (i) bias correction is able to reduce systematic biases in regional climate integrations and thus benefits hydrological projections over YBR Basin; (ii) Bayesian model averaging, which optimally combines individual hydrological simulations obtained from different bias correction methods, tends to provide hydrological time series superior over individual ones. We show that by the year 2035, the annual mean streamflow is projected to change respectively by 6.8%, -0.4%, and -4.1% under RCP4.5 relative to the historical period (1980-2001) at the Bahadurabad in Bangladesh, the upper Brahmaputra outlet, and Nuxia in China. Under RCP8.5, these percentage changes will substantially increase to 12.9%, 13.1%, and 19.9%. Therefore, the change rate of streamflow shows strong spatial variability along the YBR from downstream to upstream. The increasing rate of streamflow shows an augmented trend from downstream to upstream under RCP8.5 compared to an attenuated pattern under RCP4.5.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133459
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Hydraul Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
2.East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, State Key Lab Estuarine & Coastal Res, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci,Minist Educ, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China
3.King Abdulaziz Univ, Dept Hydrogeol, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia

Recommended Citation:
Xu, Ran,Hu, Hongchang,Tian, Fuqiang,et al. Projected climate change impacts on future streamflow of the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River[J]. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,2019-01-01,175:144-159
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Xu, Ran]'s Articles
[Hu, Hongchang]'s Articles
[Tian, Fuqiang]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Xu, Ran]'s Articles
[Hu, Hongchang]'s Articles
[Tian, Fuqiang]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Xu, Ran]‘s Articles
[Hu, Hongchang]‘s Articles
[Tian, Fuqiang]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.