globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1017/S0030605317000503
WOS记录号: WOS:000462894000019
论文题名:
Shifts in habitat suitability and the conservation status of the Endangered Andean cat Leopardus jacobita under climate change scenarios
作者: Bennett, Magdalena1,3; Marquet, Pablo A.2,4,5; Sillero-Zubiri, Claudio1; Marino, Jorgelina1
通讯作者: Bennett, Magdalena
刊名: ORYX
ISSN: 0030-6053
EISSN: 1365-3008
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:2, 页码:356-367
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Andes ; conservation planning ; climate change ; Leopardus jacobita ; Maxent ; species distribution modelling ; threatened species
WOS关键词: SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; RANGE SHIFTS ; EXTINCTION RISK ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; SAMPLE-SIZE ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PERFORMANCE ; COMPLEXITY ; PREDICTION ; ELEVATION
WOS学科分类: Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS研究方向: Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Organisms adapted to life at high elevations are particularly threatened by climate change, which can cause them to become isolated on mountain tops, yet their responses may vary according to their position in the food chain and their ecological flexibility. Predicting the future distributions of such organisms requires fine-tuned species-specific models. Building on a previous ecological niche model, we explored shifts in the suitability of habitats for the Endangered Andean cat Leopardus jacobita, and assessed how these will be represented within existing protected areas in the future. Using a robust set of presence records and corrected climate surfaces, we applied the Maxent algorithm to model habitat suitability for this carnivore and for its preferred prey, the mountain viscacha Lagidium viscacia. Our predictions indicate that the areas climatically suitable for Andean cats could contract by up to 30% by 2080 under the most pessimistic scenario, with an overall upwards shift of 225 m and a polewards displacement of 98-180 km. The predicted range contraction was more pronounced in the species' core range, in the Bolivian and Peruvian Andes, whereas suitable conditions may increase in the southern range in Patagonia. Bolivia and Peru are predicted to suffer the most marked decline in habitat representativeness within protected areas. The southern range appears to be less vulnerable to climate change, offering opportunities for the conservation of this genetically distinct population. We discuss the value and limitations of using species distribution modelling to assess changes in the potential distribution and conservation status of this and other Andean species.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133509
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Oxford, Recanati Kaplan Ctr, Zool Dept, Wildlife Conservat Res Unit, Tubney House, Tubney OX13 5QL, England
2.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Fac Ciencias Biol, Dept Ecol, Santiago, Chile
3.Univ Bernardo OHiggins, Ctr Invest Recursos Nat & Sustentabilidad, Santiago, Chile
4.Inst Ecol & Biodiversidad, Santiago, Chile
5.Lab Int Cambio Global, Santiago, Chile

Recommended Citation:
Bennett, Magdalena,Marquet, Pablo A.,Sillero-Zubiri, Claudio,et al. Shifts in habitat suitability and the conservation status of the Endangered Andean cat Leopardus jacobita under climate change scenarios[J]. ORYX,2019-01-01,53(2):356-367
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