globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2018.11.008
WOS记录号: WOS:000462362300003
论文题名:
Envisioning surprises: How social sciences could help models represent 'deep uncertainty' in future energy and water demand
作者: Sharmina, Maria1; Ghanem, Dana Abi1; Browne, Alison L.2,3; Hall, Sarah Marie2; Mylan, Josephine3; Petrova, Saska2; Wood, Ruth1
通讯作者: Sharmina, Maria
刊名: ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE
ISSN: 2214-6296
EISSN: 2214-6326
出版年: 2019
卷: 50, 页码:18-28
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Demand forecasting ; Decision-making ; Uncertainty ; Paradigm change
WOS关键词: ROBUST DECISION-MAKING ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FOOD NEXUS ; ELECTRICITY-GENERATION ; SYSTEMS ; POWER ; CONSUMPTION ; SCENARIOS ; DYNAMICS ; POLICY
WOS学科分类: Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Medium- and long-term planning, defined here as 10 years or longer, in the energy and water sectors is fraught with uncertainty, exacerbated by an accelerating 'paradigm shift'. The new paradigm is characterised by a changing climate and rapid adoption of new technologies, accompanied by changes in end-use practices. Traditional methods (such as econometrics) do not incorporate these diverse and dynamic aspects and perform poorly when exploring long-term futures. This paper critiques existing methods and explores how interdisciplinary insights could provide methodological innovation for exploring future energy and water demand. The paper identifies four attributes that methods need to capture to reflect at least some of the uncertainty associated with the paradigm shift: stochastic events, the diversity of behaviour, policy interventions and the 'coevolution' of the variables affecting demand. Machine-learning methods can account for some of the four identified attributes and can be further enhanced by insights from across the psychological and social sciences (human geography and sociology), incorporating rebound effect and the unevenness of demand, and acknowledging the emergent nature of demand. The findings have implications for urban and regional planning of infrastructure and contribute to current debates on nexus thinking for energy and water resource management.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133546
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Univ Manchester, Sch Mech Aerosp & Civil Engn, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England
2.Univ Manchester, Sch Environm Educ & Dev, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England
3.Univ Manchester, Manchester Business Sch, Sustainable Consumpt Inst, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England

Recommended Citation:
Sharmina, Maria,Ghanem, Dana Abi,Browne, Alison L.,et al. Envisioning surprises: How social sciences could help models represent 'deep uncertainty' in future energy and water demand[J]. ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE,2019-01-01,50:18-28
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Sharmina, Maria]'s Articles
[Ghanem, Dana Abi]'s Articles
[Browne, Alison L.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Sharmina, Maria]'s Articles
[Ghanem, Dana Abi]'s Articles
[Browne, Alison L.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Sharmina, Maria]‘s Articles
[Ghanem, Dana Abi]‘s Articles
[Browne, Alison L.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.