Climate refuges have been used by several species over historical climate change. Ectothermic species often display good models for climate change studies because they are highly sensitive to temperature. Analysis of species loss with ecosystem and evolutionary values helps to understand environmental processes and climate change consequences. We determined the functional and phylogenetic diversity of amphibians in the Atlantic Forest hotspot, using multiple models representingpresent and future conditions. Through a novel approach, we predict species' threat status by 2080, following the IUCN's criterion B1. Our results estimate a drastic reduction in species richness, ecosystem functioning and evolutionary history at low latitudes and altitudes. We show that species will tend to disperse to the areas with milder temperatures (i.e., high latitudes/altitudes). Some of these areas are the same climate refuges that have been suggested for the Late Pleistocene. We highlight that 60% of amphibians can become threatened under predicted-future conditions. This work advances the knowledge on climate refuges for amphibian ecology and evolution, supporting complementary tools for conservation strategies.
1.Univ Estadual Maringa, Programa Posgrad Ecol Ambientes Aquat Continentai, Maringa, PR, Brazil 2.Univ Fed Goias, Lab Herpetol & Comportamento Anim, Campus Samambaia, BR-74001970 Goiania, Go, Brazil 3.Univ Barcelona, Fac Biol, Dept Biol Evolutiva Ecol & Ciencies Ambientals, E-08028 Barcelona, Spain 4.Univ Vila Velha, Lab Ecol & Conservacao Herpetofauna, Programa Posgrad Ecol Ecossistemas, BR-29102920 Vila Velha, ES, Brazil 5.Univ Estadual Santa Cruz, Dept Ciencias Biol, BR-45662000 Ilheus, BA, Brazil 6.Utah State Univ, Dept Wildland Resources, Logan, UT 84322 USA 7.Utah State Univ, Ctr Ecol, Logan, UT 84322 USA
Recommended Citation:
Lourenco-de-Moraes, Ricardo,Campos, Felipe S.,Ferreira, Rodrigo B.,et al. Back to the future: conserving functional and phylogenetic diversity in amphibian-climate refuges[J]. BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION,2019-01-01,28(5):1049-1073