全球变化知识资源中心

Understanding the dynamics of food production is critical to improving food security. This is particularly important in regions that rely on subsistence agriculture with little adaptive capacity to climate change. Sorghum plays an important role in food security in some of the poorest parts of the world. This article reviews the literature to identify and examine the major factors affecting sorghum production in three major production regions. Factors were not categorized ex ante but rather determined from the review. Ten major factors were identified as having notable impacts on sorghum production: climate change, population growth/economic development, non-food demand, agricultural inputs, demand for other crops, agricultural resources scarcity, biodiversity, cultural influence, price and armed conflict. This synthesis revealed that (1) multiple factors simultaneously affect sorghum production; (2) the effect of each factor is greatly influenced by the magnitude and certainty of one or more other factors; and, (3) factors differ in relevance and degree with regard to geography. Generally, improved agricultural inputs, population growth/economic development and climate change have substantial influence on sorghum production. However, local dynamics likely go beyond these broad trends and more exhaustive, locally-focused studies are needed for actionable planning purposes.