globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1811463116
WOS记录号: WOS:000463069900032
论文题名:
Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century
作者: Rojas, Maisa1,2; Lambert, Fabrice2,3; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian4,5,6; Challinor, Andrew J.4,5
通讯作者: Rojas, Maisa
刊名: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2019
卷: 116, 期:14, 页码:6673-6678
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; natural variability ; precipitation ; agriculture ; CMIP5
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; YIELDS ; MAIZE
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability-the time of emergence (TOE)-is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (<2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1-14% (3-31%) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133999
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Chile, Dept Geophys, Santiago 8370449, Chile
2.Univ Chile, CR2, Ctr Climate & Resilience Res, Santiago 8370449, Chile
3.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Dept Phys Geog, Santiago 7820436, Chile
4.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England
5.CIAT, CGIAR Res Program Climate Change Agr & Food Secu, Cali 763537, Colombia
6.CIAT, Int Ctr Trop Agr, Cali 763537, Colombia

Recommended Citation:
Rojas, Maisa,Lambert, Fabrice,Ramirez-Villegas, Julian,et al. Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2019-01-01,116(14):6673-6678
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