Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
; Water Resources
WOS研究方向:
Geology
; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
; Water Resources
英文摘要:
Understanding risk using quantitative risk assessment offers critical information for risk-informed reduction actions, investing in building resilience, and planning for adaptation. This study develops an event-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model for livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) region and derives risk assessment results based on historical climate conditions (1980-2015) and present-day prevention capacity. In the model, a hazard module was developed to identify and simulate individual snow disaster events based on boosted regression trees. By combining a fitted quantitative vulnerability function and exposure derived from vegetation type and grassland carrying capacity, we estimated risk metrics based on livestock mortality and mortality rate. In our results, high-risk regions include the Nyainqentanglha Range, Tanggula Range, Bayankhar Mountains and the region between the Kailas Range and the neighbouring Himalayas. In these regions, annual livestock mortality rates were estimated as > 2% and mortality was estimated as > 2 sheep unit km(-1) at a return period of 20 years. Prefectures identified with extremely high risk include Guoluo in Qinghai Province and Naqu, and Shigatse in the Tibet Autonomous Region. In these prefectures, a snow disaster event with a return period of 20 years or higher can easily claim total losses of more than 500 000 sheep units. Our event-based PRA results provide a quantitative reference for preparedness and insurance solutions in reducing mortality risk. The methodology developed here can be further adapted to future climate change risk analyses and provide important information for planning climate change adaption in the QTP region.
1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Minist Educ,Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.Boston Univ, Frederick S Pardee Ctr Study Longer Range Future, Boston, MA 02215 USA 4.East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Ye, Tao,Liu, Weihang,Wu, Jidong,et al. Event-based probabilistic risk assessment of livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2019-01-01,19(3):697-713