globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.3390/su11082349
WOS记录号: WOS:000467752200162
论文题名:
Economic Impacts of a Low Carbon Economy on Global Agriculture: The Bumpy Road to Paris
作者: Jensen, Hans1; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio1; Fellmann, Thomas1; Lirette, Paul2; Hristov, Jordan1; Philippidis, George1,3
通讯作者: Jensen, Hans ; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio
刊名: SUSTAINABILITY
ISSN: 2071-1050
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:8
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Paris Agreement ; climate change mitigation ; agricultural sector ; market outlook ; Aglink-Cosimo
WOS关键词: GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SEQUESTRATION ; SCENARIOS ; DYNAMICS ; POLICIES
WOS学科分类: Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Limiting climate change below a 2 degrees C temperature increase this century will require substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and the transition to a climate-friendly, low carbon society. In this paper, the economic impact of a less carbon-intensive economy on agricultural markets is estimated by means of an integrated modelling framework. First, the macroeconomic impacts of moving into a global low carbon economy are analysed by applying different carbon taxes in a general equilibrium modelling framework. Second, the potential adoption of emission mitigation technologies is quantified and used in the Aglink-Cosimo model to assess the impacts on agricultural markets of emission mitigation scenarios compatible with the 2.0 degrees C target prescribed in the Paris Agreement. Results for 2030 show reductions in global non-CO2 GHG emissions from agriculture (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide) by 10, 16 and 19% in 50, 100 and 150 USD/t CO(2)eq global carbon tax scenarios, respectively (Least Developed Countries excluded). Only between 0.6% and 1.3% of the global reduction is caused by indirect macroeconomic effects, although at the regional level they can cause up to 5.8% of the reduction in agricultural emissions. Results suggest that ambitious mitigation targets can provoke significant negative impacts on agricultural production and underline the importance of integrating GHG emission developments and impacts of related policies into agricultural market projections.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/134046
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Seville 41092, Spain
2.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Res & Anal Directorate, Ottawa, ON K1A 0C5, Canada
3.Aragonese Agcy Res & Dev ARAID, Ctr Agrofood Res & Technol, IA2, Govt Aragon, Zaragoza 50059, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Jensen, Hans,Perez Dominguez, Ignacio,Fellmann, Thomas,et al. Economic Impacts of a Low Carbon Economy on Global Agriculture: The Bumpy Road to Paris[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019-01-01,11(8)
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