globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-1319-2019
WOS记录号: WOS:000463349500003
论文题名:
A crop yield change emulator for use in GCAM and similar models: Persephone v1.0
作者: Snyder, Abigail1; Calvin, Katherine V.1; Phillips, Meridel2,3; Ruane, Alex C.3
通讯作者: Snyder, Abigail
刊名: GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
ISSN: 1991-959X
EISSN: 1991-9603
出版年: 2019
卷: 12, 期:4, 页码:1319-1350
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WHEAT YIELDS ; TEMPERATURE ; SYSTEM ; LAND ; PROTOCOLS ; RESPONSES ; DATASETS ; WATER ; GAP
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Geology
英文摘要:

Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and, through these changed yields, can have profound impacts on the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multi-sector economic models, such as the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and other similar-in-scale models. Yet, generalizing a faster site-specific crop model's results to be used globally will introduce inaccuracies, and the question of which model to use is unclear given the wide variation in yield response across crop models. To examine the feedback loop among socioeconomics, Earth system changes, and crop yield changes, rapidly generated yield responses with some quantification of crop response uncertainty are desirable. The Persephone v1.0 response functions presented in this work are based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) sensitivity test data set and are focused on providing GCAM and similar models with a tractable number of rapid to evaluate dynamic yield response functions corresponding to a range of the yield response sensitivities seen in the C3MP data set. With the Persephone response functions, a new variety of agricultural impact experiments will be open to GCAM and other economic models: for example, examining the economic impacts of a multi-year drought in a key agricultural region and how economic changes in response to the drought can, in turn, impact the drought.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/134110
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
2.Columbia Univ, Earth Inst Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA
3.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA

Recommended Citation:
Snyder, Abigail,Calvin, Katherine V.,Phillips, Meridel,et al. A crop yield change emulator for use in GCAM and similar models: Persephone v1.0[J]. GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT,2019-01-01,12(4):1319-1350
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